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Hello everyone, today is February 18th
and this is our session number

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7 of the Wyckoff Trading Course.

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Thank you for sending me your homework
and notes and email.

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I really had a blast just reading
through all of them and of course, you

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noticing some patterns, whether they,
you know, grooms to

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whether this is the group pattern,
mistakes

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or issues or questions or comments, or
it just belongs to some individual

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students. So thank you for all of those.

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And obviously, today's class is going to
be a reflection of everything that

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you've sent me in your emails.

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Going to continue our volume and price
analysis.

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Oh, boy, I feel like I'm still not in
the momentum.

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Okay, I'm going to get there, guys. I'm
going to get there.

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So we're going to continue with our
actually not like a price structure.

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Gosh, I need to change this. Volume and
price.

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And our next session is going to be
February 25th.

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And I'll talk about what exactly we're
going to do on the next slide. Really

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quickly, some of the comments. So today
I have to address this.

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Without a doubt, volume and price
analysis topic is most fascinating as

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difficult to comprehend, especially
considering many variables like local

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or broader context, close with respect
to spread, spread range up and down

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compared to early bars.

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which can potentially lead to people
concluding opposite interpretation of

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same scenario.

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Yes, I would agree.

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And that's why not just with Wyckoff
method,

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but analyzing the market could be so
tricky.

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Obviously, our goal is to deeply
understand the reasons.

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of why the price behaves the way that it

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does based on its most recent and long
-term past.

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It's also based on the behaviors of
market participants that we want to

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understand.

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And I've got a couple of emails, maybe
three references

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to... how confusing the volume and
spread analysis is, or at least how I

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explained it, you know, could be
confusing.

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And I think that you guys have to, you
know, just basically grind it

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out.

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It's a very counterintuitive idea that
we are talking about, where we see that

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there is an effort behind one force, and
yet that effort fails.

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Usually the very much intuitive way of
how we would be thinking about this type

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of price volume action is going to be
all about if there is force that is

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present, then it's going to produce a
specific result.

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That's how we think.

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That's kind of like our regular way of
thinking.

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And in markets, there are always
different forces that are in play.

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And sometimes it's not visible which
force has won the battle.

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So what we're trying to do is figure out
early indications of

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who is the winner of the battle between
supply and demand.

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And even some of the tools that we have,
if you think about the volume as a

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tool, it's just so insufficient.

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we have to make sure that we interpret
it correctly and that we extract the

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correct deductions from that. I will
talk about this a little bit later on,

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maybe within the next three or four
sessions. I'll present you with some

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ways of how to look at the volume.

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We'll do that.

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And then further down the road in the
wake of practicum, this is something

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we discuss a lot.

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So we'll do that.

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Okay, next one. I just finished watching
last session video again, and it was a

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lot of enlightening after completing the
homework.

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Some of my questions were already
answered by you in the last session, but

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counselors did not think incompletely
when I watched them before attempting

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homework. I'm going to follow this
approach of re -watching the video

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after completing the homework.

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as it helped me answer some of my own
questions which I encountered while

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the homework. Every time I rewatch the
video, the earlier video, I learn

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something new that I missed earlier.

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Guys, why I'm putting this comment here?

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This last sentence that I underlined
right here is the most important one.

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Once I rewatch earlier videos, I learn
something new that I missed earlier.

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I bet you anything that all of you going
through the live session

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or watching the video recording once,
most likely

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you guys are not retaining everything,
what has been said, every thought, every

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conclusion, and so on and so forth. And
that's just how we are. We are just

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humans. So to help us with this,

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is an idea of going back and watching it
again.

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So I really would like to encourage you
to do this. This is probably going to be

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the most beneficial homework that you're
going to have. And if you can do this

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on a limited basis, just do it for this
exercise that we just went into.

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This is the most systematic exercise
that the course has.

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And we definitely go into the price
structural analysis and we go into the

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volume and price analysis.

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And it's a combination of both that
gives us such, you know, good knowledge

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confidence in identifying the bias, the
timing, and the character.

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All right, next one. And this is just
very kind of like

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emotionally, you know, touching. So
thank you for sending this.

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The method makes perfect sense, provides
real value.

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And so this student has actually

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tried

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the knowledge as I believe in actual
trading. So that's great.

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Okay, it will take months of deep
practice to get very well.

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Very good with the knowledge, applying
the knowledge and the skill.

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This is one of the rules I learned by
studying the science of expertise.

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Yeah, I would definitely agree to this.

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And this is what I do on a daily basis.
So each day, the

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knowledge that I have is not enough.

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As I look at the market and if I don't
understand something, then I know that

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there is more knowledge to gain.

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So we are just kind of, in a way, you
know, when you study a lot,

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there are a lot of blind spots that are
being opened to you.

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And you understand how, you know,
still...

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so much that you have to learn and you
have to incorporate and develop the

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on. So I really like this type of
attitudes where, you know, you guys are

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this seriously, you know, and obviously
it just depends on the situation.

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So, you know, don't take this too hard
on yourselves if, you know, there is no

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time to do a lot of work. So just get as
much as you can from this.

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But for those of you who have time, and
who are serious about this stuff, then

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yeah, study, study it, grind it, grind
it. It's just like a constant grind and

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constant like every day.

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Let me look at the chart. Let me analyze
the chart. Let me go to the class. Let

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me do the homework.

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Let me just do one thing a day and it
will go a long way.

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Well, anyway, so I really appreciate all
the comments.

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All right, guys.

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Today... I'm thinking that we're
definitely going to go beyond 530, so

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this in mind.

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So what are we going to do today? So
we're going to revisit VSA a little bit

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because there were quite a few
questions, so we'll try to address

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We're going to continue with our group
exercise.

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We're going to continue in the same
manner. We're going to have the

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We're going to go through a series of
questions with the volunteers. We're

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to try to figure out the bar analysis,
swing analysis, behavioral analysis,

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make some deductions, and then go to the
next chart. I don't know exactly how

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much we're going to cover today.

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That's also always a mystery to me with
any of the groups.

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Sometimes it's quick, sometimes it's
slower.

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slower is always better because slower
brings a lot of quality into our

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analysis. And then our homework exercise
is a group exercise note. So I

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want you to re -watch the video and send
me the notes.

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Next class on the 25th, we're going to
continue with the group exercise. We're

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going to probably go with this exercise
for maybe like four sessions more.

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Then we'll talk about volume and phase
analysis. I thought we'll talk about

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today, but there are quite a lot of
things that need to be discussed before

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jump into the volume and phase analysis.

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And then, as always, the homework is
going to be only notes. I want you to

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the video again and make notes and send
those to me.

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All right, let's revisit again the
volume and spread analysis.

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One of the biggest questions, comments,
concerns that I heard from you guys is

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that it sometimes could be misleading.

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And I would say to that, or confusion.

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That's what I heard in the email. It's
confusion.

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So I would start thinking about this
again as a very much

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counterintuitive way of thinking.

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about the price and volume and how that
relationship unfolds.

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And obviously when we say, let's say,
bearish or bullish,

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we are implying the most probable

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next short -term direction of what is
going to happen next.

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Literally either on the next bar or on
the next series of bars.

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Please note that I said highly probable
way

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of how the price is going to behave.

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But what does it mean? High probability
does not mean that it's going to do it

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every time.

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High probability only means that you
have some kind of probabilistic edge

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on the past.

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And in some instances, it will go
against you.

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So I want you to keep this in mind.

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I think the confusion comes more at the
spots where, you know, we have some kind

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of, you know, duality as to what could
happen. Again, I mentioned that we

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usually think in terms of high
probability moves that should happen

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But I think that something like this,
scenario number five, where

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maybe we're seeing extremely bullish
picture. And maybe what I should do,

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do here you know for the next cycle is
to basically say um maybe looks

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like looks like very bullish

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bar and indeed

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it does think about this in technical
analysis we always say

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that volume needs to confirm the price

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So what are we seeing here? We're seeing
that there is a big move to the upside,

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so the price is extremely aggressively
bullish.

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And then the volume comes and increases
significantly.

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So our first thinking on kind of like
the level of

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basic knowledge that we have, we're
going to be thinking that the volume

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confirms the price.

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So this is the basic knowledge.

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But we need to go a little bit deeper,
and we need to go and ask ourselves a

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question of why the volume is so

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high.

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And then the answers will come when
we'll start thinking about this.

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We will be thinking, Well, this is very
extraordinary, right? So if the volume

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was high before, let's say that, you
know, maybe this level here is an

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equivalent of this, right? So a high
volume signature.

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And then it went up maybe, what, times
three,

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times four?

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Can you imagine?

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besides of the effort that has come?

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And we're starting to question, is this
all demand that

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comes at this point?

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Okay, so let's think about this.

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If it all would be demand, and let's say
in the previous scenarios we saw the

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same, maybe it's kind of spread.

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that goes up on this volume, which is
the lower volume signature. And here,

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times four volume signature, wouldn't we
have the bar that would extend maybe

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even four times more? Something like
this.

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This type of bar. I mean, like, it's a
ridiculous bar.

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And I'm over -exaggerating this concept,
but hopefully communicating the idea

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that not necessarily everything that
looks so bullish

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is going to be bullish.

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And it's in the series of questions that
we're getting the answers that, no,

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it's not just demand that comes in.

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Most likely, some supply comes in as
well.

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So if we're seeing that demand is
increasing a lot, and we're going to say

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demand is increasing quite...

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Quite a lot.

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And then we're saying that supply is
increasing. And just because of how big,

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climatically huge this signature is,
that supply increases significantly.

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So therefore, we have an increase in
demand, a quite significant increase in

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demand. And then we have an increase in
supply.

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Demand is still dominating supply at
this point because we're closing

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And that's how usually the majority
of...

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traders are going to interpret this type
of bar.

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But we know that with this increase of
the supply, which is going to be more

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than the increase of, let's say, supply
that we've seen in other situations,

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this increase of the supply will have
some kind of institutional signature.

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And again, we're asking why. Why would
they come at this point and sell?

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Well, because they need liquidity and
obviously value.

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and value they need both on the buying
side and on the selling side.

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We've talked about overbought conditions
where institutions will try to either

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scale out, unload some of the portions
of their position, or maybe hedge

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against the main position.

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So both of the requirements are here.
There's quite a lot of liquidity into

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area, which probably is going to be a
climactic action.

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So they will sell into this liquidity.

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They will see value for their exit
point.

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And therefore, they are the ones that
are providing this supply, and that's

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supply is increasing.

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That increase of the supply, together
with the increase of the demand, is

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to produce that climactic action.

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So again, what's going to look very much
bullish is not

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necessarily so.

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00:18:23,740 --> 00:18:30,620
And therefore, we are referring to this
analysis as a counterintuitive skill.

230
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:38,660
Seeing something that is uniformly
interpreted as

231
00:18:38,660 --> 00:18:44,860
a bullish scenario, but behind it we
could see

232
00:18:44,860 --> 00:18:50,800
the beginnings or the emergence of the
supply, the beginnings of...

233
00:18:51,950 --> 00:18:56,670
maybe a distribution or just a stop in
action in the emergence of institutional

234
00:18:56,670 --> 00:19:03,430
supply. I think that, you know, the
climactic actually should be

235
00:19:03,430 --> 00:19:04,430
somewhat simplistic.

236
00:19:04,890 --> 00:19:10,670
You guys, the shortcut to this as a
visualization is just the extreme volume

237
00:19:10,670 --> 00:19:16,230
signature. It's going to send out, it's
going to be such a huge volume spike or

238
00:19:16,230 --> 00:19:17,830
maybe a series of...

239
00:19:18,620 --> 00:19:23,320
volumes combined together and with the
climactic run, those characteristics of

240
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:28,460
the climactic action are going to be,
you know, somewhat simple to identify.

241
00:19:28,740 --> 00:19:35,740
I think that the much harder patterns
are going to

242
00:19:35,740 --> 00:19:39,920
be the ones that are going to be more
subtle. For instance, this one right

243
00:19:39,980 --> 00:19:44,260
and I think that there is a reference
here in this comment in the middle of

244
00:19:44,260 --> 00:19:46,740
chart. So this type of pattern.

245
00:19:47,150 --> 00:19:52,730
where we see the diminution volume
signature as a function of both

246
00:19:52,730 --> 00:19:57,170
diminution demand and potentially
diminution supply.

247
00:19:58,470 --> 00:20:03,950
So how would the price behave after
that?

248
00:20:05,570 --> 00:20:10,810
To me, that's not necessarily a very
high probability

249
00:20:10,810 --> 00:20:14,970
scenario. I would say that the climactic
supply

250
00:20:15,740 --> 00:20:22,260
or climactic volume rather, will always
have a much higher probability of

251
00:20:22,260 --> 00:20:28,160
stopping the price from moving further
up, at least in a very short -term

252
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,880
way.

253
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:38,700
So this is much more problematic on the
analytical level.

254
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:44,260
And the price could be seen as just...

255
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:50,140
Diminishing demand, but supply is lower,
so therefore there might be a

256
00:20:50,140 --> 00:20:51,140
continuation.

257
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:58,260
Diminishing demand, saying that there
are no more buyers, and therefore if the

258
00:20:58,260 --> 00:21:03,240
quality of the demand goes down even
more, then even diminishing supply could

259
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:04,620
produce some kind of reaction.

260
00:21:06,140 --> 00:21:11,680
So you have to think about both of the
scenarios at this spot.

261
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,140
And then you have to test it.

262
00:21:15,460 --> 00:21:18,960
So you have to see what comes next.

263
00:21:20,980 --> 00:21:26,560
If demand is diminishing and we're going
to expect some kind of reaction, what

264
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,340
kind of reaction we're going to have?

265
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:30,980
Judge the quality of this reaction.

266
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:36,800
Okay, we have a reaction that comes
maybe to the lower one -third of the

267
00:21:38,250 --> 00:21:43,930
And then recovers intraday. So that's
going to look bullish. And your test is

268
00:21:43,930 --> 00:21:47,490
going to be successful, you know, as a
continuation to the upside.

269
00:21:47,850 --> 00:21:53,810
Or maybe we have a test that has a bar
to the downside like this that commits

270
00:21:53,810 --> 00:21:56,270
below this low.

271
00:21:56,490 --> 00:22:01,150
Well, then this is a much more serious
situation because that suggests the

272
00:22:01,150 --> 00:22:03,910
reversal and potential continuation to
the downside.

273
00:22:04,770 --> 00:22:06,930
One way or another, guys.

274
00:22:07,370 --> 00:22:13,810
however you feel about volume and spread
analysis right now, I want to kind of

275
00:22:13,810 --> 00:22:20,810
push you to still go forward with this
and to still spend a lot of your

276
00:22:20,810 --> 00:22:27,590
mental energy analyzing together with me
and together with the class all

277
00:22:27,590 --> 00:22:33,050
of the bars that we're going to go
through, all of the swings, and then

278
00:22:33,050 --> 00:22:34,610
keep asking the questions.

279
00:22:34,870 --> 00:22:36,470
What am I not understanding?

280
00:22:37,050 --> 00:22:42,470
What is my question to him on? Hand me
those questions. And one by one, we're

281
00:22:42,470 --> 00:22:45,950
going to deal with those and we're going
to address those. And if we can't, then

282
00:22:45,950 --> 00:22:49,650
we're just going to, you know, I'll put
them into the question bucket for the

283
00:22:49,650 --> 00:22:55,510
last session and we'll definitely
address this. But let me reassure you

284
00:22:55,510 --> 00:22:59,710
the end of this segment on volume and
price, you will feel much more confident

285
00:22:59,710 --> 00:23:01,290
about all of this.

286
00:23:02,010 --> 00:23:03,010
All right.

287
00:23:03,210 --> 00:23:08,700
Let me show you some of the examples
which I thought, were great examples of

288
00:23:08,700 --> 00:23:15,360
students' work that you guys sent to me.
This actually was sent

289
00:23:15,360 --> 00:23:19,200
to me, I believe, a couple of cycles
ago.

290
00:23:19,660 --> 00:23:26,600
Al has sent this almost like a
spreadsheet or a table

291
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:32,000
where he talks about different,

292
00:23:32,300 --> 00:23:35,440
he puts there visually different

293
00:23:39,530 --> 00:23:42,310
Context. Then spread.

294
00:23:43,790 --> 00:23:45,070
And volume.

295
00:23:45,890 --> 00:23:50,130
So you have all three. And then, you
know, everything goes into the

296
00:23:50,130 --> 00:23:54,570
interpretation. So I thought it was
really cool visually and how the

297
00:23:54,570 --> 00:23:55,590
is being presented.

298
00:23:56,350 --> 00:24:00,890
So and he said, okay, you know, to
distribute and to show. So here you go,

299
00:24:02,250 --> 00:24:04,050
You can take this, print this out.

300
00:24:04,250 --> 00:24:10,970
And I love that every one of you is so
individually unique in the

301
00:24:10,970 --> 00:24:15,390
way how you understand this material,
how you interpret, how you visualize it.

302
00:24:15,510 --> 00:24:19,710
And it's always so much fun when you
guys send me this type of pieces.

303
00:24:20,670 --> 00:24:27,130
Just tell me a couple of things about
you that you are thinking, that you're

304
00:24:27,130 --> 00:24:30,370
thinking about this concept, that you
are...

305
00:24:31,700 --> 00:24:36,480
individualizing those concepts, which is
extremely important because when you do

306
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:42,120
something like this, then I know that
you understand the material and that

307
00:24:42,120 --> 00:24:44,720
you're more or less comfortable with
that.

308
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:52,180
And then obviously just from the
perspective of, well, that was the

309
00:24:52,180 --> 00:24:56,540
you did this, so that's great. This was
not the homework for our class for this

310
00:24:56,540 --> 00:24:57,980
cycle, so don't worry about this.

311
00:24:58,830 --> 00:25:00,890
Okay, so let's look at something else.

312
00:25:01,750 --> 00:25:07,250
With the group exercise, again, quite a
lot of work that you guys done.

313
00:25:07,510 --> 00:25:13,890
And unfortunately, that's the only way.
I do not know any other ways of how I

314
00:25:13,890 --> 00:25:19,690
could teach you something without you
practicing and you gaining all of the

315
00:25:19,690 --> 00:25:20,690
knowledge and skill.

316
00:25:22,210 --> 00:25:25,810
I'm just a messenger here. I'm giving
you this material.

317
00:25:26,070 --> 00:25:27,450
You have to...

318
00:25:28,950 --> 00:25:31,730
create the ownership of this material by
practicing.

319
00:25:32,030 --> 00:25:37,550
So there are quite a few wonderful ways
of how you practiced.

320
00:25:37,830 --> 00:25:39,330
So this comes from Lee.

321
00:25:39,730 --> 00:25:42,070
And this is just phenomenal.

322
00:25:42,450 --> 00:25:44,690
Look what he's done here.

323
00:25:45,090 --> 00:25:49,210
It's a spreadsheet, I believe, that was
just transferred into the PowerPoint.

324
00:25:49,550 --> 00:25:54,170
And then we have all of the bars, one by
one.

325
00:25:54,640 --> 00:26:01,400
with all of the interpretations as to
how the effort and the

326
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,740
result interact with each other and what
kind of

327
00:26:04,740 --> 00:26:11,600
subcategories on that under the volume
and

328
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:17,360
spread we have and what are the
deductions from that. So that's

329
00:26:18,140 --> 00:26:22,040
Okay, next example, also a spreadsheet
from Doug.

330
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:29,140
And kind of the same idea, and again, I
love this because you guys are making it

331
00:26:29,140 --> 00:26:35,420
your own, and that tells me that you're
comfortable and you're adapting the

332
00:26:35,420 --> 00:26:36,420
material well.

333
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:37,760
So that's great.

334
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:39,840
Okay.

335
00:26:40,220 --> 00:26:45,960
This was also very cool. This one is
from Rama. This is on the homework for

336
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:51,340
So Rama, not just did the homework,
but...

337
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:57,520
Took the S andP spiders and then bar -by
-bar analysis.

338
00:26:57,860 --> 00:27:00,200
And I'm actually thinking this is such a
great idea.

339
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:06,860
Probably some of the exercises that I
need to incorporate into the course are

340
00:27:06,860 --> 00:27:11,860
going to be something like this. Not
just for you to find specific bars, but

341
00:27:11,860 --> 00:27:13,720
interpret the bars like this.

342
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:20,060
Although we do this with the group
exercise already. But a cool way and

343
00:27:20,060 --> 00:27:21,060
good job.

344
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:25,580
And if you guys want to practice, you
know, do something like this. Just grab

345
00:27:25,580 --> 00:27:28,180
any chart and then go bar by bar.

346
00:27:29,060 --> 00:27:31,540
See if you can interpret each bar.

347
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:39,260
You can write it down or you could just
do it, you know, on your iPad, you know,

348
00:27:39,260 --> 00:27:43,040
kind of like more mechanically. Just
open up each bar, bar by bar.

349
00:27:43,500 --> 00:27:47,000
And then if the interpretation was not
correct,

350
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:52,420
Come back to the other bar with the
question of what am I not seeing here?

351
00:27:53,740 --> 00:27:56,100
Why is the next move such?

352
00:27:56,520 --> 00:28:03,180
And what information can I extract from
the previous bar

353
00:28:03,180 --> 00:28:07,100
that would give me an indication of
what's going to happen next?

354
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:13,300
A very quick example of this, and I'm
not going to go through all of what Rama

355
00:28:13,300 --> 00:28:16,820
has written here, so you could read it
yourself.

356
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:22,600
But really quickly, look at bar number
three and how all of them are going to

357
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:27,020
connected, right? So let's even actually
start with bar number two. So bar

358
00:28:27,020 --> 00:28:33,980
number two has some kind of bullish
characteristic with increasing spread,

359
00:28:33,980 --> 00:28:38,880
close, a small supply that's coming in
on the increasing volume.

360
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:44,360
So we know that there is some kind of
emergence of the supply.

361
00:28:45,050 --> 00:28:51,790
So if next day is going to be increased
effort to the downside

362
00:28:51,790 --> 00:28:56,810
that we might not see, but it's going to
be there, then we might stop at that

363
00:28:56,810 --> 00:28:59,570
point. And look at what happens with the
result.

364
00:29:00,490 --> 00:29:03,210
Result to the upside diminishes in the
spread.

365
00:29:03,570 --> 00:29:06,310
We see that the effort has increased.

366
00:29:06,770 --> 00:29:09,070
And we are asking ourselves a question.

367
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:15,760
What would be the situation with the
volume and specifically with supply when

368
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:20,960
the effort increased so much and the
result decreased relative to bar number

369
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:26,920
two? So we would be thinking that supply
is increasing at this spot even more

370
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:32,860
than on the previous bar. That suggests
a stop in action, possible reversal.

371
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:39,240
And then within the context of the move,
suggest a climactic action. With the

372
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,480
climactic action, there is a suggestion
for the trading range.

373
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:48,420
And look how such a simple assumption

374
00:29:48,420 --> 00:29:55,360
about bar number three leads us to a
more meaningful conclusion that

375
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,460
a possible trading range might unfold.

376
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,580
So volume and spread analysis.

377
00:30:05,180 --> 00:30:12,060
or what Wyckoff was referring to as tape
reading, is very crucial

378
00:30:12,060 --> 00:30:15,360
for us, and we need to understand it
really well.

379
00:30:17,020 --> 00:30:23,000
Okay, a couple of questions, comments on
the homework from Noesh.

380
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:30,280
And I'm going to go, I'm going to try to
go through these questions really fast.

381
00:30:31,399 --> 00:30:37,860
Is it fair to assume that in upswing
intention is up and in

382
00:30:37,860 --> 00:30:39,320
downswing down?

383
00:30:39,580 --> 00:30:40,580
Yes.

384
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:45,380
Is it strong weak hand intention that we
are tracking here?

385
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:52,820
Not necessarily that the intentions of
the strong or weak hands is

386
00:30:52,820 --> 00:30:56,380
going to be associated with specific
moves.

387
00:30:56,660 --> 00:31:00,540
We might be, let's say, in the
accumulation range.

388
00:31:02,830 --> 00:31:08,410
where the strong hands are picking
everything up at the bottom and they are

389
00:31:08,410 --> 00:31:11,430
accumulating the stock at this point of
time.

390
00:31:11,630 --> 00:31:18,370
And imagine that there is kind of like a
timer at which they stop

391
00:31:18,370 --> 00:31:21,950
accumulating and they're saying, we have
a full position.

392
00:31:24,670 --> 00:31:29,630
Actually, I was just working today with
one of the institutional clients of

393
00:31:29,630 --> 00:31:30,630
mine.

394
00:31:30,750 --> 00:31:37,470
a good friend, and we were discussing
the risk parameters for

395
00:31:37,470 --> 00:31:40,190
the system that they're developing.

396
00:31:40,890 --> 00:31:46,730
And it's very interesting how
institutions accumulate

397
00:31:46,730 --> 00:31:48,570
their position.

398
00:31:49,730 --> 00:31:56,010
They are not necessarily going to be
acquiring the full position right away.

399
00:31:56,730 --> 00:32:03,640
In a way, sometimes they want kind of
gradually come into the position

400
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:09,620
at the most opportune times of value and
liquidity and also at the

401
00:32:09,620 --> 00:32:16,400
times where they acquire

402
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,980
some additional confirmation for their
idea.

403
00:32:20,300 --> 00:32:24,680
So in other words, and I really like
this thinking, in other words, they're

404
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,300
going to put on the pro position.

405
00:32:28,220 --> 00:32:29,940
and see how that's going to behave.

406
00:32:30,220 --> 00:32:36,340
And doesn't that remind you of
reminiscences of a shock operator type

407
00:32:36,340 --> 00:32:37,340
stories?

408
00:32:37,860 --> 00:32:43,300
If you have not read this book, please
go and buy it and read this.

409
00:32:44,900 --> 00:32:51,700
And then after the proposition, if, and
only under the condition of if, if

410
00:32:51,700 --> 00:32:53,100
behaves correctly,

411
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:04,660
Then they're going to find the next
scale -in opportunity.

412
00:33:05,740 --> 00:33:10,540
And obviously, the scale -in opportunity
is going to be within the system rules.

413
00:33:16,540 --> 00:33:22,880
And then they might have other spots
where they add additional

414
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,800
shares. And only then...

415
00:33:27,980 --> 00:33:32,120
all of this would act as a full position
for them.

416
00:33:32,860 --> 00:33:38,840
So just a kind of different way of
thinking about risk

417
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,600
within the context of the structure.

418
00:33:43,140 --> 00:33:48,460
And I'm going to be showing you more and
more of this type of thinking because I

419
00:33:48,460 --> 00:33:53,140
think that we amateur traders could
benefit from the professional way of how

420
00:33:53,140 --> 00:33:56,820
people are looking at the best risk.

421
00:33:58,290 --> 00:34:00,930
practices, tactical practices, and so on
and so forth.

422
00:34:03,130 --> 00:34:09,830
So it's not necessarily that we will be
seeing the intention, let's say,

423
00:34:09,870 --> 00:34:11,610
behind this rally right here.

424
00:34:12,489 --> 00:34:15,909
Let me just highlight this a little bit
more. Let's say, what is the intention

425
00:34:15,909 --> 00:34:18,130
behind this rally by strong hands?

426
00:34:18,550 --> 00:34:22,449
There is only one intention, and it's
just to accumulate the shares at the

427
00:34:22,449 --> 00:34:23,449
price right here.

428
00:34:23,550 --> 00:34:25,070
There is no intention...

429
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,659
behind strong hands for the price to
break out right away.

430
00:34:28,980 --> 00:34:35,900
The strong hands still in the acquiring
mode and they will not mark

431
00:34:35,900 --> 00:34:42,440
up intentionally the price until the
timer is on, until we have a full

432
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,219
for this particular institution.

433
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:50,679
So I wouldn't be thinking about it that
way. I would be just thinking that

434
00:34:50,679 --> 00:34:53,199
whether...

435
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:59,740
a reaction to the downside at the level
of the, let's say, support.

436
00:35:00,780 --> 00:35:04,600
The intention here is going to be to
continue to move to the downside.

437
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,800
Intention to go down.

438
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:19,440
And then on the way up into the area of
the resistance, the intention is going

439
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,600
to be to commit above, to go above.

440
00:35:23,690 --> 00:35:24,970
and to commit above.

441
00:35:26,390 --> 00:35:29,570
So that's how we need to think about the
intention.

442
00:35:30,270 --> 00:35:31,270
All right.

443
00:35:32,910 --> 00:35:38,970
In selling climax, is the intention to
stop the decline or move prices further

444
00:35:38,970 --> 00:35:45,830
down? Okay, so I see how the strong and
weak hands come about with

445
00:35:45,830 --> 00:35:49,510
the selling climax, and that actually
makes sense to me.

446
00:35:49,810 --> 00:35:52,570
Yes, so behind the climactic action,

447
00:35:54,160 --> 00:36:01,120
We might be thinking that the intention
for strong hands is to stop the

448
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:07,940
downtrend, although there is no, again,
I think it's

449
00:36:07,940 --> 00:36:14,800
not even semantics, but there is no herd
mentality by institutions to

450
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:15,960
stop the trend.

451
00:36:17,930 --> 00:36:22,410
because that would be tempering, right?
So they can't get together and say like,

452
00:36:22,510 --> 00:36:28,050
yeah, let's stop this trend at let's say
$100 or let's say $20.

453
00:36:28,670 --> 00:36:34,850
No, they individually make their
decision on the value proposition at

454
00:36:35,350 --> 00:36:41,050
And they say that at this level, we're
seeing value and we are presented with

455
00:36:41,050 --> 00:36:45,610
enough liquidity to get in to position
and establish that position.

456
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:53,380
Because that type of thinking is going
to be common among

457
00:36:53,380 --> 00:36:58,760
the contrarian institutional traders.

458
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:04,680
That's what's going to create the size
capable of observing the supply, the

459
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:09,440
panic supply, and capable of stopping
the price from moving further down.

460
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,260
So in a way, sometimes...

461
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:21,880
When I hear that people would say like
composite operator, composite man, you

462
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:25,940
know, trapped weak hands and wanted to
move the price down so that all of the

463
00:37:25,940 --> 00:37:30,800
stop losses would work in, you know, in
the composite operator's favor.

464
00:37:31,980 --> 00:37:38,320
That doesn't really make sense to me.
There is no kind of like bad, devious

465
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:43,040
intention behind the composite man. The
only intention by the composite man.

466
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:47,720
It's simple. It's the same intention as
for you and for me. It's to make money.

467
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:52,900
So the composite man is going to come in
at the point of value and liquidity

468
00:37:52,900 --> 00:37:57,440
that they consider to be their point of
entry.

469
00:37:59,140 --> 00:38:05,680
And if there are enough institutions
that think in the same way, that's

470
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,820
going to absorb the supply and stop the
price from going further down.

471
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:11,680
Having said this.

472
00:38:13,140 --> 00:38:18,200
From the swing perspective, the
intention of the downtrend is always to

473
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:22,180
below the next point of support, right?
So we see it here.

474
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:24,780
There is a commitment to the downside.

475
00:38:25,140 --> 00:38:30,240
So on the next attempt to go down, which
is this reaction right here, swing

476
00:38:30,240 --> 00:38:35,120
number five, we will be talking about an
ability to commit to the downside.

477
00:38:35,220 --> 00:38:37,740
Therefore, intention is not satisfied.

478
00:38:39,220 --> 00:38:41,840
Oh, I didn't realize there are so many
questions here.

479
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:47,640
For bullish or bearish close bars around
support and resistance, is the

480
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:51,780
intention to break support or
resistance, or just the direction of a

481
00:38:51,780 --> 00:38:54,220
and down, for example, bar number 1920?

482
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,980
Yeah, we'll talk about this spot, so
let's not go there.

483
00:39:00,300 --> 00:39:03,480
But, you know, let's come back, let's
say, to this area right here.

484
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:08,720
Behind bar number two, the intention was
what? To commit above.

485
00:39:09,500 --> 00:39:12,180
We had a lot of effort behind it.

486
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:14,580
we had a very bullish bar.

487
00:39:14,780 --> 00:39:20,320
And actually, this reminds me of this
conversation, discussion that we had on

488
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:26,740
the previous slides, VSA slides, where
we see this type of bar

489
00:39:26,740 --> 00:39:28,940
that looks very bullish.

490
00:39:29,300 --> 00:39:35,460
And that's where a mistake is going to
come if people don't recognize as to how

491
00:39:35,460 --> 00:39:39,920
much the volume has increased relative
to the average.

492
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:46,480
And what does it actually mean? We've
talked about the emergence of the

493
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:47,780
This was a really good example.

494
00:39:48,260 --> 00:39:55,220
But yeah, the intention is always not
just to break the support or

495
00:39:55,220 --> 00:39:56,220
resistance.

496
00:39:56,620 --> 00:40:00,940
So let's say like this one right here,
25.

497
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:05,520
It doesn't show a commitment above the
resistance.

498
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:10,580
It shows only an attempt to commit, an
intraday commitment.

499
00:40:11,340 --> 00:40:13,860
and then the close is below that.

500
00:40:14,340 --> 00:40:18,660
So intention is always to commit above
or below.

501
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:24,900
Advance and decline in market schematics
for volume and price analysis stock

502
00:40:24,900 --> 00:40:27,960
above and decrease in spread.

503
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:35,480
Instead of going by candle schematic,
should I concentrate more on effort and

504
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,220
result equation for interpretation?

505
00:40:37,660 --> 00:40:38,800
You could do either.

506
00:40:43,850 --> 00:40:49,210
I've been kind of doing them separately
and I just combined them just recently.

507
00:40:49,250 --> 00:40:56,090
Why? Because it's just two different
ways of interpreting the same data

508
00:40:56,090 --> 00:40:57,890
and coming to the same conclusion.

509
00:40:58,190 --> 00:41:05,090
So I think it's a person dependent,
student dependent as to whether you are

510
00:41:05,090 --> 00:41:11,330
kind of like visual or more maybe even
kind of like auditory in the way that

511
00:41:11,330 --> 00:41:12,330
need to.

512
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:17,080
put it into the equation and so on and
so forth. So it's up to you exactly how

513
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:18,080
you're going to do this.

514
00:41:21,380 --> 00:41:26,200
I found it very hard to decide whether
or not supply demand is coming from

515
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:27,600
strong hands or weak hands.

516
00:41:28,540 --> 00:41:33,460
You know, this is something that is
going to develop, so don't worry about

517
00:41:34,180 --> 00:41:36,860
This is something that's going to come
and...

518
00:41:40,430 --> 00:41:43,530
will require some time to master.

519
00:41:44,090 --> 00:41:47,370
And I'm still mastering this in a big
way.

520
00:41:47,810 --> 00:41:54,710
So I understand the concept, I see them,
but yet I have to

521
00:41:54,710 --> 00:42:01,690
consciously start thinking about them.
So they are not necessarily the ones

522
00:42:01,690 --> 00:42:06,270
are jumping out right away. Although in
the spots like this, you should

523
00:42:06,270 --> 00:42:08,170
instantly understand what's happening
here.

524
00:42:09,990 --> 00:42:16,650
here, here, here. All of those spots are
going to be somewhat of the same

525
00:42:16,650 --> 00:42:23,130
quality. And then obviously this, this,
this, this, this, and so on and so

526
00:42:23,130 --> 00:42:24,130
forth.

527
00:42:24,610 --> 00:42:29,350
So for specific patterns like this, once
you see them, then you know specific

528
00:42:29,350 --> 00:42:32,830
strong and weak hands behaviors at those
spots.

529
00:42:33,190 --> 00:42:37,990
And we will be discussing those. So if
you feel like you...

530
00:42:38,350 --> 00:42:43,370
don't fully understand something or you
don't see, it's just a matter of time.

531
00:42:43,450 --> 00:42:47,770
It's just a matter of practice. And we
just had one class. So, you know, just,

532
00:42:47,930 --> 00:42:51,270
you know, it's going to be okay.

533
00:42:52,370 --> 00:42:53,370
All right.

534
00:42:54,470 --> 00:42:57,550
A couple of other questions here from
Eric.

535
00:42:58,010 --> 00:42:59,530
In swing number two,

536
00:43:00,270 --> 00:43:03,130
the candle number two.

537
00:43:03,710 --> 00:43:08,150
Could we think that bullish green candle
is the level where some institutions

538
00:43:08,150 --> 00:43:13,530
bought and the other found lower, more
interesting value, creating in that way

539
00:43:13,530 --> 00:43:19,230
the trading range accumulation starting
in the trading range and

540
00:43:19,230 --> 00:43:24,910
creating in that way the cause?

541
00:43:29,340 --> 00:43:35,860
So we are talking about this bar and the
question here from Eric is,

542
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,880
is this an institutional bias?

543
00:43:43,100 --> 00:43:47,800
And the answer to this is most definite,
yes.

544
00:43:48,500 --> 00:43:54,560
And then we need to think about the
intention here, right? So what was the

545
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,440
intention? The intention was to overcome

546
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:04,260
the resistance and commit to the upside
so therefore the weak hands were buying

547
00:44:04,260 --> 00:44:11,040
and the strong hands were selling so
therefore

548
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:17,180
yes institutions are buying on this bar
and they are weak hands so those

549
00:44:17,180 --> 00:44:21,800
institutions that are buyers at this
point we would be thinking as of we can

550
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:28,290
could they have uh hold on to this
position through this trading range.

551
00:44:28,290 --> 00:44:34,970
possible. So think about this for a
second. And that's why I think using the

552
00:44:34,970 --> 00:44:41,410
composite man as kind of like one single
narrative heuristic to describe all of

553
00:44:41,410 --> 00:44:48,070
the market participants, their
intentions and behaviors is, I'm not

554
00:44:48,070 --> 00:44:51,370
sure it's a good way to do that.

555
00:44:52,030 --> 00:44:55,410
Imagine an institution that bought on
this bar, as Eric suggests.

556
00:44:56,570 --> 00:45:03,290
Then this institution is holding on
through this position through swing

557
00:45:03,290 --> 00:45:08,750
4, 3, 5, 6, and then that position is
profitable.

558
00:45:09,290 --> 00:45:12,550
So are they weak hands or are they
strong hands?

559
00:45:13,370 --> 00:45:18,250
Well, if we would be very diligent about
this, we probably would say they bought

560
00:45:18,250 --> 00:45:20,810
this position from the position of weak
hands.

561
00:45:21,700 --> 00:45:28,200
still not at the most opportune
opportunity for institutions because we

562
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:34,180
that institutions want value and there
was a much better value below and

563
00:45:34,180 --> 00:45:38,760
institutions wants liquidity and there
is a lot of liquidity to the upside here

564
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:44,220
but there was no liquidity to the
downside like we've had on bars number

565
00:45:44,220 --> 00:45:49,960
and six that go into the more climactic
type of run and there is a general

566
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:51,560
capitulation at that point.

567
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:57,320
So on the point of entry by this
institution, I definitely would say that

568
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,380
institution acts as we can.

569
00:46:00,900 --> 00:46:07,320
So therefore, we would be thinking in
our next analysis, and let

570
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:13,180
me know, guys, which bar did we stop on.
I think six or seven. We didn't go

571
00:46:13,180 --> 00:46:16,940
through the trading range. So as we
discuss the trading range, we'll

572
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:22,000
the behaviors, the behavioral analysis,
and we'll talk about, you know, all of

573
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:26,140
those market participants, what they're
doing. Okay, good question.

574
00:46:31,940 --> 00:46:36,480
Can clothes be bearish in schematic
number one since this is bullish?

575
00:46:36,900 --> 00:46:39,400
Okay, so from R1.

576
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:46,840
Okay, in schematic number one. Are we
talking about this?

577
00:46:47,210 --> 00:46:49,110
in the advancing markets, yeah, I'm
assuming.

578
00:46:50,910 --> 00:46:56,430
That's the only schematic that really
can close, be bearish. Here,

579
00:46:56,590 --> 00:47:02,530
well, depending on, you know, the
increase in the volume signature still

580
00:47:02,530 --> 00:47:07,890
suggest the increase of the supply,
right? So it's all contextual at this

581
00:47:07,970 --> 00:47:09,930
You know, on the schematic,

582
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:17,320
This is oversimplification, Armand, you
know, conceptual simplification.

583
00:47:17,720 --> 00:47:22,540
But on the actual chart, and again,
going through the exercise, we'll see

584
00:47:22,540 --> 00:47:27,780
once we look at the analogs, we might
interpret this bar differently.

585
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:34,740
So again, it's an extremely important
task to understand the

586
00:47:34,740 --> 00:47:39,440
implication of the context of where the
signal occurs.

587
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:49,240
Yeah, okay. Well, let's kind of leave
this to the exercise. And at some of the

588
00:47:49,240 --> 00:47:54,480
spots where you see this, Armand, please
just nudge me and we'll talk about this

589
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:55,480
again.

590
00:47:58,920 --> 00:47:59,920
All right.

591
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,020
Okay, let's go to the next one.

592
00:48:13,060 --> 00:48:18,680
Okay, so a small piece of lecture
information for today. This is going to

593
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:21,760
crucial for us, and we've talked about
this a little bit.

594
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:30,440
This, I believe, was done by one of my
students from previous cycles, and this

595
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:34,580
is a great slide because visually it
just explains the concept really good.

596
00:48:34,720 --> 00:48:39,820
We're talking about the price spread
analysis, only the price, no volume, and

597
00:48:39,820 --> 00:48:41,160
we're talking about the bullish.

598
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:43,320
spread and the true range.

599
00:48:43,660 --> 00:48:46,660
And there is a difference between those
two definitions.

600
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:52,000
So the spread by itself, or sometimes we
would say on the daily chart, a daily

601
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:57,880
spread is the distance between the low
and the high of the spread. So we would

602
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:03,600
take the high and the low, and that
would be the measurement of the spread.

603
00:49:03,860 --> 00:49:08,980
The low and the high, and that would be
the spread.

604
00:49:10,190 --> 00:49:15,650
The true range is something different.
The true range occurs when we have a

605
00:49:15,650 --> 00:49:17,790
condition of a gap.

606
00:49:20,250 --> 00:49:24,530
And therefore, we will be talking that
during the overnight session,

607
00:49:24,850 --> 00:49:31,710
institutions have traded the stock and
they are trading

608
00:49:31,710 --> 00:49:38,710
advanced price further up. And on the
open, the price was higher.

609
00:49:39,240 --> 00:49:43,300
than the previous close, and that's what
has created that gap.

610
00:49:43,580 --> 00:49:49,520
If you have an opportunity on your
software packages to go and to look at

611
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:56,340
after -hours session price and volume
charts, you will see that,

612
00:49:56,460 --> 00:50:02,880
especially for stocks that are going
through earnings after the close or

613
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:08,430
on the same day, the next day, you're
going to have a lot of after the session

614
00:50:08,430 --> 00:50:15,430
activity. And, you know, over 99 % of
that activity is all institutional.

615
00:50:16,110 --> 00:50:21,650
Institutions are trading with each
other, exchanging the shares among each

616
00:50:21,650 --> 00:50:25,170
other. And then that moves the price.

617
00:50:25,850 --> 00:50:32,570
It's in a way kind of unfair that... For
a long time, retail

618
00:50:32,570 --> 00:50:36,550
traders were not able to participate in
something like this. You would be

619
00:50:36,550 --> 00:50:39,030
thinking, well, there is some kind of
edge right there.

620
00:50:39,350 --> 00:50:42,790
And there is definitely an edge if you
can create a system around this.

621
00:50:44,190 --> 00:50:50,930
But you are capable of doing this and
trading after these sessions now

622
00:50:50,930 --> 00:50:55,310
almost with any of the brokers.

623
00:50:56,110 --> 00:51:02,810
So you can look into this. My advice is
don't even bother so much unless your

624
00:51:02,810 --> 00:51:09,550
system somehow is aligned with the,
let's say, after the

625
00:51:09,550 --> 00:51:16,470
market earnings type of trading. But
other than that, majority of the

626
00:51:16,470 --> 00:51:20,530
stocks are not going to move
significantly unless there is some kind

627
00:51:20,530 --> 00:51:21,530
so on and so forth.

628
00:51:23,230 --> 00:51:27,910
Coming back to the true range
definition, when we have a gap, we want

629
00:51:27,910 --> 00:51:34,810
understand the movement, the full
movement of the price on this next day.

630
00:51:34,810 --> 00:51:41,130
close of the previous day will be the
time for us when we say this is where

631
00:51:41,130 --> 00:51:42,130
next day begins.

632
00:51:42,410 --> 00:51:48,970
So all of the movement that we have,
this difference

633
00:51:48,970 --> 00:51:52,110
between the high and the...

634
00:51:52,490 --> 00:51:53,750
Previous days close.

635
00:51:54,790 --> 00:51:56,530
That's going to be the true range.

636
00:51:56,890 --> 00:52:03,690
And when we do our effort result
analysis, we're going to say, let's say,

637
00:52:03,690 --> 00:52:09,730
increasing effort, we're going to see
the increased result.

638
00:52:11,530 --> 00:52:17,830
And also we will be thinking about the
day session for this bar, right? So we,

639
00:52:17,930 --> 00:52:20,790
in some instances, this bar might be
like smaller.

640
00:52:21,240 --> 00:52:23,960
So more compressed, more condensed.

641
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:29,360
So for this type of bar, we would say
even though effort has increased and the

642
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:35,680
true range has increased, but for the
day's activity, we see how the

643
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:40,780
of the spread suggests the emergence of
the supply at that spot.

644
00:52:41,260 --> 00:52:46,700
So again, we'll discuss this more as we
go through the exercise. Bearish spread

645
00:52:46,700 --> 00:52:50,380
and true range is going to be defined
the same way.

646
00:52:50,830 --> 00:52:55,310
So the difference between the high and
the low for just the spread or the daily

647
00:52:55,310 --> 00:52:58,370
spread. It could be weekly spread. It
could be monthly spread.

648
00:52:58,630 --> 00:53:05,390
And then for the true range, we have to
have a definition of the gap as an

649
00:53:05,390 --> 00:53:06,390
overnight session.

650
00:53:06,470 --> 00:53:11,450
And then the difference between the low
of the

651
00:53:11,450 --> 00:53:18,330
daily bar and the previous close will
define the

652
00:53:18,330 --> 00:53:19,330
true range.

653
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:23,160
for this bar, and this is the true
range.

654
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:28,120
So, and that's gonna look like a
significant bar type of bar.

655
00:53:29,540 --> 00:53:30,680
All right, great.

656
00:53:31,240 --> 00:53:37,420
So, yeah, Cameron and I agree, very
simple visually appealing slide, you

657
00:53:37,460 --> 00:53:39,680
and all of the concepts are here.

658
00:53:40,100 --> 00:53:43,200
There's really no need to add anything
else to this.

659
00:53:44,420 --> 00:53:48,200
Okay, so now, so we said,

660
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:54,480
Start on number seven. Okay, so we need
a volunteer, and we're going to start

661
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:56,380
with bar number seven.

662
00:53:57,820 --> 00:54:04,260
So say yes, and hopefully, you know,
somebody steps in, you know, who has not

663
00:54:04,260 --> 00:54:05,260
done this before.

664
00:54:06,820 --> 00:54:10,820
All right, so still waiting for a
volunteer.

665
00:54:17,500 --> 00:54:19,110
Excellent. Okay.

666
00:54:19,950 --> 00:54:20,950
All right.

667
00:54:21,790 --> 00:54:28,070
Okay, great. So I'm going to try and see
if we could do this with somebody who I

668
00:54:28,070 --> 00:54:29,630
think we haven't done this before.

669
00:54:31,830 --> 00:54:33,630
Hi, Rick. How are you doing?

670
00:54:38,710 --> 00:54:39,710
Doing good.

671
00:54:40,050 --> 00:54:41,050
Okay, great.

672
00:54:42,410 --> 00:54:44,810
So let's start with bar number seven.

673
00:54:46,260 --> 00:54:52,940
And before we do that, let me kind of
like really quickly go through what

674
00:54:52,940 --> 00:54:58,360
we've done before. So we just talked
about bar number two. We said that the

675
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:01,180
hands were buying on this bar.

676
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:08,680
The strong hands were selling or just
being inactive, but

677
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:13,680
most likely selling just because the
volume was so big. So that produces...

678
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:20,140
A continuation of the short -term bias
to the downside on bar number three. We

679
00:55:20,140 --> 00:55:22,120
see how the test in a way fails.

680
00:55:22,580 --> 00:55:27,500
There is a penetration of the low of bar
number two by bar number three on the

681
00:55:27,500 --> 00:55:32,560
intraday basis that suggests weakness
and suggests a continuation to the

682
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:38,580
downside. In the swing number three, we
see that at the end, starting with bar

683
00:55:38,580 --> 00:55:44,640
number five, there are attempts to stop
the price from moving further down.

684
00:55:45,100 --> 00:55:49,340
Well, what does this attempt mean? It
means that the demand is increasing.

685
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:53,400
Demand is starting to absorb supply at
this point.

686
00:55:55,640 --> 00:56:02,400
And then on bar number six, we see the
same pattern where demand is coming in

687
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:03,760
and we see this demand tail.

688
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:10,800
And we see that for this time, as supply
signature globally

689
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:17,770
just goes down, we also see that on the
decreasing effort to push the price

690
00:56:17,770 --> 00:56:23,890
higher, the price goes up the same way
to the upside.

691
00:56:24,310 --> 00:56:28,130
So it equals the same distance as on bar
number five.

692
00:56:28,410 --> 00:56:34,430
So we see some kind of ease of movement
to the upside that suggests that supply

693
00:56:34,430 --> 00:56:35,590
might be exhausted.

694
00:56:37,950 --> 00:56:42,750
Supply is exhausted. And also that
demand is,

695
00:56:46,620 --> 00:56:49,400
is capable of moving the price up.

696
00:56:52,380 --> 00:56:55,340
And I think that this is where we have
stopped.

697
00:56:55,560 --> 00:57:01,500
So Rick, let's start here at number six
and seven.

698
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:03,940
So did we talk about number six?

699
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:06,720
I just don't recall this. I think we
did.

700
00:57:07,860 --> 00:57:11,200
Yes, we have. Yeah, we have. Okay.

701
00:57:11,900 --> 00:57:17,280
All right, so let me start with the
question. So how do we view bar number

702
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:21,420
as a potential Wyckoff event of what?

703
00:57:21,640 --> 00:57:23,740
What is this event at number six?

704
00:57:26,540 --> 00:57:27,540
Selling climax.

705
00:57:27,700 --> 00:57:32,140
Selling climax, okay. And selling climax
have what kind of characteristics

706
00:57:32,140 --> 00:57:33,140
really quickly?

707
00:57:35,340 --> 00:57:36,340
Stopping action.

708
00:57:36,490 --> 00:57:40,110
Stopping action, yes, we're stopping the
price from moving further down. Okay,

709
00:57:40,170 --> 00:57:41,630
then how would the volume behave?

710
00:57:45,470 --> 00:57:46,470
Well,

711
00:57:48,370 --> 00:57:50,610
it looks like on this one it's increased
volume.

712
00:57:51,210 --> 00:57:53,850
Yeah, there is in this area.

713
00:57:54,090 --> 00:57:58,990
And, you know, when we talk about
selling climax, buying climax, we're not

714
00:57:58,990 --> 00:58:01,250
necessarily, guys, are going to talk
about one bar.

715
00:58:01,710 --> 00:58:06,530
We're going to talk about more of the
climactic run to the downside, climactic

716
00:58:06,530 --> 00:58:07,630
run to the upside.

717
00:58:08,850 --> 00:58:15,290
So we might pick up an area, a number of
bars, that would have that increased

718
00:58:15,290 --> 00:58:21,410
volume signature, and that would be a
characteristic of a panic at this spot.

719
00:58:21,750 --> 00:58:26,450
Okay, well, if the volume should
increase on the climactic action, then

720
00:58:26,450 --> 00:58:28,750
would the price behave, Eric? I'm sorry,
Eric.

721
00:58:34,109 --> 00:58:38,410
Well, probably the price should go down
and increase.

722
00:58:38,690 --> 00:58:42,850
But in which way? What would be the
character of how the price goes down?

723
00:58:43,070 --> 00:58:46,170
So we addressed the volume already. How
would the price go down?

724
00:58:49,490 --> 00:58:53,410
Increased spread you should see on the
way down. Yes. So we would be looking at

725
00:58:53,410 --> 00:58:57,650
the increased spread. We would be
looking at the climactic run.

726
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:01,300
We would be looking at some gaps to the
downside.

727
00:59:02,980 --> 00:59:08,080
And we kind of see, to some extent, all
of this is just not that profound.

728
00:59:08,420 --> 00:59:13,680
I mean, like we look and we see, yes,
there are increasing spread. We see some

729
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:14,680
gaps.

730
00:59:15,540 --> 00:59:19,740
This move to the downside accelerates
relative to what we've seen before.

731
00:59:19,980 --> 00:59:24,980
So there is a climactic action. It's
just not extremely well defined.

732
00:59:25,500 --> 00:59:29,800
So the volume helps us out a lot, and
then just the stopping action by itself

733
00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:34,200
six. Okay, so at this point, we're
thinking maybe a climactic action.

734
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:36,580
What should happen next, Rick?

735
00:59:39,500 --> 00:59:42,780
Then automatic rally.

736
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:48,540
Absolutely. And automatic rally also
would be characterized, this rally right

737
00:59:48,540 --> 00:59:51,180
here, as what else?

738
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:54,020
This rally.

739
00:59:54,740 --> 01:00:00,100
looking at the previous rallies on the
decline, what can we say about this

740
01:00:00,100 --> 01:00:01,160
between six and seven?

741
01:00:03,300 --> 01:00:05,120
Should be a bigger rally.

742
01:00:05,380 --> 01:00:12,320
Yeah. Between six and seven. Yeah,
between six and seven. After the

743
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:17,300
run, we're going to have an automatic
rally, and that's going to create a

744
01:00:17,300 --> 01:00:18,300
of character.

745
01:00:18,940 --> 01:00:22,840
Rick, what does change of character
suggest to us at this point?

746
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:27,260
that we're going to enter into a trading
range.

747
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:31,380
Absolutely. We're going to go into a non
-trending environment.

748
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:38,380
And we only conclude this from the way
how the price behaves behind this rally,

749
01:00:38,560 --> 01:00:43,660
right? So this is the largest rally on
the way down. And it tells us that there

750
01:00:43,660 --> 01:00:50,460
is more buying here or at least ability
of the price to move up on diminishing

751
01:00:50,460 --> 01:00:51,460
demand signature.

752
01:00:51,790 --> 01:00:55,370
There is some buying here already. We've
talked about the emergence of the

753
01:00:55,370 --> 01:01:01,390
demand on bond number five, bond number
six, and now on this rally between

754
01:01:01,390 --> 01:01:08,030
six and seven. So it's almost as if
somebody is buying in this

755
01:01:08,030 --> 01:01:14,290
area right here. So in right away, this
area becomes your value zone

756
01:01:14,290 --> 01:01:17,430
because you're thinking who would be
buying on the way down.

757
01:01:17,900 --> 01:01:18,900
on the institutions.

758
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:22,380
So kind of like an institutional value
zone.

759
01:01:22,700 --> 01:01:28,780
So anything at the bottom is going to be
an oversold condition. Anything at the

760
01:01:28,780 --> 01:01:32,000
top or close to the top is going to be
an overbought condition.

761
01:01:32,220 --> 01:01:37,700
And that's how we will be looking, you
know, through this whole area.

762
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:43,760
Well, Rick, now that we know that we're
going to be in the consolidating

763
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:48,500
environment and six was defined as a
selling climax, Seven is an automatic

764
01:01:48,500 --> 01:01:55,200
rally. Eight is defined as... That would
be a

765
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:56,820
secondary test.

766
01:01:57,060 --> 01:02:03,840
Secondary test, absolutely correctly,
which concludes phase... Phase

767
01:02:03,840 --> 01:02:05,100
A. Phase A.

768
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:13,060
Now that we know that we are in the
trading range, let's try and go through

769
01:02:13,060 --> 01:02:15,240
trading range and try to figure out...

770
01:02:17,760 --> 01:02:22,780
phases, right? And we know that this was
an accumulation. So let's deal with the

771
01:02:22,780 --> 01:02:24,980
phases first and then we'll talk about
the bias.

772
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:29,080
Where would you put phase C?

773
01:02:34,540 --> 01:02:39,100
Phase C I would put at bar nine.

774
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:43,160
Okay. I would concur with that. For the
test.

775
01:02:43,740 --> 01:02:44,740
Okay. The test.

776
01:02:44,860 --> 01:02:48,400
All right. So why would you put it in
this area?

777
01:02:52,060 --> 01:02:58,760
Because it's testing the lows in phase

778
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:00,900
A and B.

779
01:03:01,260 --> 01:03:06,980
Okay. So it's a test. Uh -huh. Okay. And
by the way, right away, so test, we

780
01:03:06,980 --> 01:03:10,440
usually would say we need test number
three. Let's define.

781
01:03:11,370 --> 01:03:14,950
Those tests. So we see point number nine
is test number three.

782
01:03:15,350 --> 01:03:20,270
We said that, you said that test at
point number eight, right?

783
01:03:23,470 --> 01:03:24,550
Test number one.

784
01:03:25,030 --> 01:03:28,550
So when, where is the second? In phase
B.

785
01:03:29,010 --> 01:03:32,610
In phase B, the test in phase B.

786
01:03:32,870 --> 01:03:34,750
Yeah, so this is the second test.

787
01:03:34,970 --> 01:03:39,770
So to identify phase C, our WTC
shortcuts.

788
01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:49,700
are going to be test number three, then
what else do we usually talk about

789
01:03:49,700 --> 01:03:53,440
to identify phase C?

790
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:58,140
How about the point of fear?

791
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:04,980
Oh, yeah, that would be like their
second point of fear.

792
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:06,720
Yeah, second point of fear.

793
01:04:07,040 --> 01:04:10,000
So where is the first point of fear,
Rick?

794
01:04:11,630 --> 01:04:14,130
First point of fear is in the selling
climax.

795
01:04:14,610 --> 01:04:19,850
Absolutely. Yeah. So this is our first
point of fear. This is where there is a

796
01:04:19,850 --> 01:04:26,310
panic, but we can't. And usually selling
climax is going to lead into more kind

797
01:04:26,310 --> 01:04:27,670
of like general capitulation.

798
01:04:28,480 --> 01:04:31,360
weak hands, both institutional and
retail hands.

799
01:04:31,660 --> 01:04:33,900
And that's why we see this increase in
volume signature.

800
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:37,560
That's why we see this move to the
downside.

801
01:04:37,920 --> 01:04:42,280
And it's fearful for weak hands. They're
trying to get rid of their stock as

802
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:43,280
much as possible.

803
01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:48,480
Then a second point of fear, which is
going to look slightly different,

804
01:04:48,640 --> 01:04:49,780
differently, right?

805
01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:54,960
It's going to look slightly different
because a lot of the weak hands are

806
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:58,080
to be out. A lot of institutional weak
hands are going to be out.

807
01:04:58,460 --> 01:05:03,560
And then whatever weak hands are going
to be left, this is their mini panic in

808
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:10,220
phase C as they are thinking that that's
it. You know, I can't

809
01:05:10,220 --> 01:05:16,540
really take the price going further down
below this trading range. So I'm going

810
01:05:16,540 --> 01:05:17,259
to sell.

811
01:05:17,260 --> 01:05:22,760
And they are selling right before the
price goes up. But price goes up not

812
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:26,900
because, let's say, this is the time for
the price to go up.

813
01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:29,080
All of these events, they're
interconnected.

814
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:35,940
Once the price starts to go down on the
second point of fear, that's when the

815
01:05:35,940 --> 01:05:40,960
weak hands are saying, that's it, get me
out. That increases slightly the

816
01:05:40,960 --> 01:05:45,120
liquidity at this spot, which suggests
institutional buying.

817
01:05:46,800 --> 01:05:53,000
And this institutional buying absorbs
the latest, whatever is left supply,

818
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:55,940
and also produces the...

819
01:05:56,160 --> 01:06:02,080
push momentum push to the upside so all
of those actions are kind of like

820
01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:08,920
interconnected okay great rick why don't
we talk about um a bias

821
01:06:08,920 --> 01:06:15,920
here in this trading range so uh looking
just at the volume signature and what

822
01:06:15,920 --> 01:06:21,220
the price is doing how can we define the
bias and at which point at which bar

823
01:06:21,220 --> 01:06:22,220
could we

824
01:06:23,130 --> 01:06:27,630
conclude and say, like, there is a
confirmation that, yes, the bias now is

825
01:06:27,630 --> 01:06:28,630
the upside?

826
01:06:32,250 --> 01:06:39,090
I would say at bar, maybe at

827
01:06:39,090 --> 01:06:40,090
bar nine.

828
01:06:40,110 --> 01:06:41,110
Okay.

829
01:06:41,510 --> 01:06:43,170
Has that tail?

830
01:06:43,910 --> 01:06:50,310
Well, it's got that tail on it, so
there's still some demand there.

831
01:06:51,450 --> 01:06:58,290
And the supply is very, looks like kind
of the

832
01:06:58,290 --> 01:06:59,590
supply has gone down.

833
01:07:00,010 --> 01:07:01,310
Yeah. Uh -huh.

834
01:07:01,590 --> 01:07:06,110
Okay. So, yeah, let me just kind of
rephrase what Rick has said.

835
01:07:06,690 --> 01:07:12,490
The main idea for us to define the buys
is to define the relationship between

836
01:07:12,490 --> 01:07:19,210
supply and demand and to see how the
price behaves to that relationship.

837
01:07:19,800 --> 01:07:23,500
So we've seen that the volume generally
decreases throughout the whole

838
01:07:23,500 --> 01:07:30,420
structure. We've seen that supply has
significantly diminished relative to

839
01:07:30,420 --> 01:07:36,300
we've seen on the climactic action. And
that acts for us as the main driving

840
01:07:36,300 --> 01:07:40,060
force behind the bias to the upside.

841
01:07:41,620 --> 01:07:43,960
And we also see that...

842
01:07:44,190 --> 01:07:48,130
On bar number nine, as Rick has
mentioned, there is some demand that's

843
01:07:48,130 --> 01:07:54,830
and that produces kind of like a small
spring situation where the price comes

844
01:07:54,830 --> 01:07:57,970
back into this middle of the range area.

845
01:07:58,590 --> 01:08:05,090
Okay, well, if that would give us some
kind of a high probability suggestion

846
01:08:05,090 --> 01:08:09,930
the bias rate, I would say that maybe a
bar number 10.

847
01:08:10,570 --> 01:08:15,910
would act as a full confirmation that we
are done with the trading range and

848
01:08:15,910 --> 01:08:20,810
that we are possibly, you know, not
possibly, but and that we are most

849
01:08:20,810 --> 01:08:23,810
probabilistically going up from this
point up.

850
01:08:24,649 --> 01:08:31,529
What is it about Barnum Batan that, you
know, could give us that

851
01:08:31,529 --> 01:08:36,569
type of confidence that, you know, now
we are going to be in the upswing?

852
01:08:39,240 --> 01:08:46,120
Well, because it pushed above the
resistance and then it

853
01:08:46,120 --> 01:08:48,560
closed right at resistance.

854
01:08:49,819 --> 01:08:56,720
Yeah. And, of course, I'm looking at bar
11, so it's like, okay, it's staying

855
01:08:56,720 --> 01:08:58,020
above resistance.

856
01:08:58,660 --> 01:09:05,380
But on bar number 10, even though, you
know, it's a good observation.

857
01:09:05,899 --> 01:09:10,960
that the close is right on the level of
the resistance of the high of bar number

858
01:09:10,960 --> 01:09:17,359
seven. So, and we see that the intraday
tail here, it actually, you know,

859
01:09:17,359 --> 01:09:20,859
tried to commit to the upside and then
came back.

860
01:09:21,500 --> 01:09:26,439
And also, please note the volume
signature, right? So this is the highest

861
01:09:26,439 --> 01:09:30,580
signature since what? Well, this bar has
some supply.

862
01:09:32,100 --> 01:09:34,819
This was close to that level.

863
01:09:35,399 --> 01:09:37,560
but also had some supply.

864
01:09:37,979 --> 01:09:44,540
So this is probably the first bar, which
is more or less kind of like demand

865
01:09:44,540 --> 01:09:45,540
pure bar.

866
01:09:46,520 --> 01:09:53,120
This is the bar where demand dominates
supply so much. And one of the qualities

867
01:09:53,120 --> 01:09:57,200
of the results here is that we're
looking at the close, and even though it

868
01:09:57,200 --> 01:10:02,060
on the resistance level here, but look
at how many closes this bar...

869
01:10:04,660 --> 01:10:11,100
reverses. We have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,
8, 9, 10, 11, 12,

870
01:10:11,240 --> 01:10:14,740
13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18.

871
01:10:16,800 --> 01:10:19,900
So either 18 or 17 bars.

872
01:10:20,280 --> 01:10:27,140
So this one single bar reverses 17 bars.

873
01:10:27,540 --> 01:10:29,640
All of these bars right here.

874
01:10:30,900 --> 01:10:33,440
And that happens on the increasing

875
01:10:34,280 --> 01:10:35,320
Volume signature.

876
01:10:35,580 --> 01:10:39,880
So Rick, how would we construct then the
effort and the result equation?

877
01:10:40,220 --> 01:10:45,220
So we've seen the increase in effort,
right?

878
01:10:46,900 --> 01:10:48,800
And then result is doing what?

879
01:10:52,380 --> 01:10:53,700
Result is increasing.

880
01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:55,440
Is increasing as well.

881
01:10:55,780 --> 01:10:58,080
Okay, so bullish or bearish?

882
01:11:01,980 --> 01:11:03,340
Bullish. Bullish.

883
01:11:03,690 --> 01:11:09,530
So short -term bullish. And this is the
bar that we will be thinking as a change

884
01:11:09,530 --> 01:11:10,530
of character bar.

885
01:11:10,950 --> 01:11:16,350
So if we had a change of character
between 6 and 7, and that was a change

886
01:11:16,350 --> 01:11:21,730
character on the way into the trading
range, then a change of character bar or

887
01:11:21,730 --> 01:11:27,450
change of character behavior at 10 is
going to be on the way out.

888
01:11:28,290 --> 01:11:34,070
So, bullish behavior, change of
character bar on the way out, that

889
01:11:34,070 --> 01:11:39,310
rally. And right here, we would be
thinking if we're expecting a rally,

890
01:11:39,310 --> 01:11:45,610
all, where it's going to go, distance,
and then

891
01:11:45,610 --> 01:11:47,250
how do we trade it.

892
01:11:49,290 --> 01:11:50,670
So, Rick, what do you think?

893
01:11:51,850 --> 01:11:56,150
What's going to be, and not just the
distance, let's talk about a distance.

894
01:11:57,870 --> 01:12:00,230
Let's talk about a potential character.

895
01:12:02,590 --> 01:12:05,470
And let's talk about how would we trade
this.

896
01:12:07,430 --> 01:12:12,670
So how would we define a distance from
the volume and price?

897
01:12:15,270 --> 01:12:16,350
Any suggestions?

898
01:12:17,410 --> 01:12:23,370
I would probably, probably looking at
bars like two and three.

899
01:12:25,779 --> 01:12:30,920
Looking at that as a point of
resistance?

900
01:12:31,580 --> 01:12:35,980
Absolutely. Okay, good. I would suggest
that maybe even this bar right here,

901
01:12:36,120 --> 01:12:39,640
right, so we kind of have a cluster of
resistance, right?

902
01:12:39,940 --> 01:12:40,940
Okay.

903
01:12:41,500 --> 01:12:47,220
And would you say that based on bar
number 10 and what

904
01:12:47,220 --> 01:12:52,460
precludes bar number 10, what happens
before bar number 10?

905
01:12:52,990 --> 01:12:58,630
would you say that the price should just
hit this resistance or overcome this

906
01:12:58,630 --> 01:13:02,990
resistance? And this is an important
question because it talks a lot about

907
01:13:02,990 --> 01:13:03,990
character of the potential.

908
01:13:06,810 --> 01:13:13,090
I think it would overcome resistance
just because of the size of the bar, the

909
01:13:13,090 --> 01:13:14,870
demand. Okay, okay.

910
01:13:15,650 --> 01:13:21,010
How would we be thinking about this? And
this is a very interesting question,

911
01:13:21,210 --> 01:13:22,210
guys.

912
01:13:22,440 --> 01:13:25,900
How are we kind of going more and more
into the details of this material?

913
01:13:26,180 --> 01:13:28,880
Look at the spread of this bar, bar
number 10.

914
01:13:30,280 --> 01:13:31,280
Here it is.

915
01:13:32,320 --> 01:13:37,580
There it is. And then what would be a
comparable analog bar to that?

916
01:13:38,500 --> 01:13:40,520
Right? So maybe bar number 7.

917
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:47,360
What else? What other bar would be an
analog bar, would you think, Rick?

918
01:13:53,290 --> 01:13:54,870
As far as the spread goes?

919
01:13:55,090 --> 01:13:56,090
Yeah, the spread.

920
01:13:58,150 --> 01:14:04,270
Might possibly bar six has got about the
same spread. Of course, it's to the

921
01:14:04,270 --> 01:14:08,350
downside, though. Yeah, so we need the
same spread to lose bar.

922
01:14:09,770 --> 01:14:10,990
Probably bar two.

923
01:14:11,350 --> 01:14:12,870
Yeah, bar two.

924
01:14:13,090 --> 01:14:14,790
Bar two's got the same spread.

925
01:14:15,010 --> 01:14:19,730
Okay, so now we're looking at some
analogs.

926
01:14:22,440 --> 01:14:28,020
And we are saying, okay, so we're
looking at bar number two,

927
01:14:28,740 --> 01:14:34,540
bar number seven, and bar number ten,
and all of this into the

928
01:14:34,540 --> 01:14:41,540
relationship, the question of what's
going to

929
01:14:41,540 --> 01:14:42,358
be the character?

930
01:14:42,360 --> 01:14:45,380
Could we overcome this resistance?

931
01:14:45,900 --> 01:14:49,480
So comparing ten and seven.

932
01:14:50,760 --> 01:14:55,820
What could we say about the effort, and
what could we say about the results?

933
01:15:00,520 --> 01:15:06,880
It looks like there's more effort on 10,
and

934
01:15:06,880 --> 01:15:11,540
it looks like we have a little bit
greater result.

935
01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:15,480
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

936
01:15:15,820 --> 01:15:18,040
So, Polish.

937
01:15:18,830 --> 01:15:19,830
Bullish, absolutely.

938
01:15:20,130 --> 01:15:26,590
So basically what we're saying is that
bar number 10 is more

939
01:15:26,590 --> 01:15:32,550
bullish than bar number 7.

940
01:15:34,030 --> 01:15:38,750
And why this is so important is because
we know what has happened after bar

941
01:15:38,750 --> 01:15:40,810
number 7. We had a reaction.

942
01:15:41,370 --> 01:15:45,130
And it's not a significant reaction.
It's actually a very bullish reaction.

943
01:15:46,169 --> 01:15:49,870
It's just, you know, it's suggested this
bar that there is some buying.

944
01:15:50,910 --> 01:15:55,010
This is the extent to which this buying,
you know, can take the price up.

945
01:15:55,430 --> 01:16:01,910
But Bonobo 10 looks a much better, more
bullish type of bar, which suggests the

946
01:16:01,910 --> 01:16:03,190
continuation to the upside.

947
01:16:03,570 --> 01:16:08,790
And we're probably thinking that if
that's the case, we're probably going to

948
01:16:08,790 --> 01:16:12,410
the resistance and there is, you know,
some chance that we're going to overcome

949
01:16:12,410 --> 01:16:15,610
it. Okay, well, then let's look at bar
number two.

950
01:16:16,710 --> 01:16:21,530
We said that there is a lot of supply
right there, but there is some demand.

951
01:16:21,530 --> 01:16:28,250
we're seeing how bar number 10 on a much
low volume signature kind of produces

952
01:16:28,250 --> 01:16:33,770
the same result, right? So if we would
even think about comparing the results,

953
01:16:33,770 --> 01:16:40,310
so effort of two and a half times

954
01:16:40,310 --> 01:16:41,310
less.

955
01:16:43,700 --> 01:16:45,540
produces same results.

956
01:16:48,160 --> 01:16:49,320
Bullish or bearish?

957
01:16:51,660 --> 01:16:58,180
Bullish. And it seems like it's going to
be even more bullish than bar number

958
01:16:58,180 --> 01:17:04,100
two. So there is some kind of ease of
movement that suggests that supply has

959
01:17:04,100 --> 01:17:08,060
been exhausted and at number two it was
not exhausted completely.

960
01:17:08,800 --> 01:17:13,340
At seven, supply is exhausted, but
demand is still not there, you know,

961
01:17:13,340 --> 01:17:14,480
good emerging demand.

962
01:17:14,720 --> 01:17:20,040
So bar number 10, for the first time,
shows us that demand is good,

963
01:17:20,160 --> 01:17:26,760
and not only it's good, it produces, and
supply

964
01:17:26,760 --> 01:17:31,480
is exhausted, but it produces a good
movement to the upside.

965
01:17:31,860 --> 01:17:35,560
So with that, we're thinking that supply

966
01:17:36,360 --> 01:17:43,000
is exhausted and um demand is good
therefore not only we should be touching

967
01:17:43,000 --> 01:17:49,060
this resistance most likely we're going
to overcome it and that's the conclusion

968
01:17:49,060 --> 01:17:55,140
on the character that we could we could
have now the next question is well we

969
01:17:55,140 --> 01:18:02,060
identified phase c here uh we could
identify phase d probably that's going

970
01:18:02,060 --> 01:18:08,880
be number 11 and then the reaction, we
could call this a sign of strength,

971
01:18:09,220 --> 01:18:13,280
minus sign of strength, and then a
backing up action, and that's going to

972
01:18:13,280 --> 01:18:16,720
conclude our phase D. So how would we
trade this, Rick?

973
01:18:17,000 --> 01:18:21,480
Which bar would you get in? Which bar
would you add to the position?

974
01:18:26,400 --> 01:18:32,520
Probably first point of entry on bar 10.

975
01:18:33,920 --> 01:18:35,940
I would agree with that. Or 11, I guess.

976
01:18:36,360 --> 01:18:38,160
I think 10 works really well.

977
01:18:39,000 --> 01:18:40,660
But where is the stop loss?

978
01:18:45,560 --> 01:18:50,380
Stop loss is going to be probably down.

979
01:18:53,460 --> 01:19:00,260
I'd be putting it at that line below
that tail on

980
01:19:00,260 --> 01:19:02,620
nine. Okay, so somewhere here.

981
01:19:03,690 --> 01:19:05,770
Okay, a logical place.

982
01:19:06,290 --> 01:19:11,490
Why? Well, because we're thinking
structurally phase C as number one, so

983
01:19:11,490 --> 01:19:16,450
in phase C usually will define the low
of the whole uptrend. So if that's the

984
01:19:16,450 --> 01:19:20,550
case, if we define phase C correctly,
then yes, this would be okay.

985
01:19:21,030 --> 01:19:25,990
Second point of logic here.

986
01:19:26,820 --> 01:19:30,960
is going to be that there was some
supply that emerged. By the way, this is

987
01:19:30,960 --> 01:19:33,200
bar right here. I keep referring to the
wrong bar.

988
01:19:34,300 --> 01:19:36,400
There was some supply increase here.

989
01:19:39,520 --> 01:19:45,860
And it was consumed. It was observed. So
some demand came in here as well

990
01:19:45,860 --> 01:19:50,580
because we see how in the next bar there
is no progression below the support.

991
01:19:50,920 --> 01:19:55,080
So therefore, there is some buying here
on these two bars.

992
01:19:55,580 --> 01:20:02,020
And the stop loss below it would be
logical place to expect if the price

993
01:20:02,020 --> 01:20:04,720
back, there's going to be some kind of
support and buy -in again.

994
01:20:05,100 --> 01:20:09,280
So that's the whole logic behind the
stop losses. You don't necessarily want

995
01:20:09,280 --> 01:20:16,120
look at the specific price level. You
want to look at the specific

996
01:20:16,120 --> 01:20:21,040
price level that's going to be
associated with buying or selling by

997
01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:24,900
institutions. And then obviously you
could also have a more conservative just

998
01:20:24,900 --> 01:20:29,140
stop loss below the bar number 6.

999
01:20:29,680 --> 01:20:35,700
Okay, well if bar number 10 is our first
point of entry, then could we buy again

1000
01:20:35,700 --> 01:20:36,700
on 11?

1001
01:20:39,880 --> 01:20:43,480
Probably buy on 11 .5 on the backup.

1002
01:20:44,040 --> 01:20:46,360
Yeah, I would agree with that. Right
there, yeah.

1003
01:20:46,660 --> 01:20:47,680
On the backup.

1004
01:20:48,040 --> 01:20:53,360
So we don't necessarily want to buy on
the breakout itself.

1005
01:20:53,620 --> 01:20:59,220
We want to buy on the breakout of the
back -nup action because we don't know

1006
01:20:59,220 --> 01:21:04,000
the price would come back into the
trading range. That's always a big

1007
01:21:04,240 --> 01:21:09,420
Although with the supply that we have
here, we kind of see that we're probably

1008
01:21:09,420 --> 01:21:11,240
not going to expect a lot of the supply.

1009
01:21:11,770 --> 01:21:14,990
The largest supply came somewhere here
and then here.

1010
01:21:15,270 --> 01:21:21,650
So these are the zones that we would be
expecting some kind of selling to

1011
01:21:21,650 --> 01:21:24,610
emerge. And we see that. So this is the
zone.

1012
01:21:25,710 --> 01:21:31,110
And by this zone, we know that as the
price goes up, there is no reason for us

1013
01:21:31,110 --> 01:21:33,490
to buy in the middle of the zone.

1014
01:21:33,990 --> 01:21:36,310
Goes up, has a reaction.

1015
01:21:36,920 --> 01:21:41,180
And we'd rather buy in the oversold
condition, which is a short -term

1016
01:21:41,180 --> 01:21:44,280
condition right here, especially on the
dimension supply signature.

1017
01:21:45,160 --> 01:21:48,900
So that's a good second point of entry
right here.

1018
01:21:49,260 --> 01:21:53,620
Okay, so how about bar number 12?

1019
01:21:53,980 --> 01:21:56,100
What can we say about bar number 12?

1020
01:22:02,500 --> 01:22:03,820
Looks like...

1021
01:22:04,620 --> 01:22:09,620
Lots of supply and some good demand,
too.

1022
01:22:09,860 --> 01:22:15,460
Yeah. We definitely see that spread
-wise,

1023
01:22:15,660 --> 01:22:22,480
it's probably the largest spread out of
10, 11, and 12,

1024
01:22:22,780 --> 01:22:26,580
right? So upspread is increasing.

1025
01:22:27,740 --> 01:22:29,760
It happens on...

1026
01:22:30,280 --> 01:22:32,300
a really good volume signature.

1027
01:22:32,660 --> 01:22:39,360
So this signature right here, bar number
11, it

1028
01:22:39,360 --> 01:22:43,680
has the volume equation as increasing
volume

1029
01:22:43,680 --> 01:22:50,560
with the increasing demand and with some
supply

1030
01:22:50,560 --> 01:22:51,620
that is emerging.

1031
01:22:51,980 --> 01:22:54,460
This emergence of the supply suggests

1032
01:22:55,230 --> 01:23:00,290
that, by the way, again, we're talking
about this resistance right here, this

1033
01:23:00,290 --> 01:23:06,110
selling by institutions. So there is a
memory here, emotional memory to sell by

1034
01:23:06,110 --> 01:23:10,370
some of the institutional traders at
this level. So they're going to sell

1035
01:23:10,530 --> 01:23:15,050
And that's what's being produced, this
reaction, instead of what? Instead of

1036
01:23:15,050 --> 01:23:16,890
this reaction to point number six.

1037
01:23:17,130 --> 01:23:21,530
So this is extremely bullish. But this
emergence of the supply suggests a

1038
01:23:21,530 --> 01:23:22,530
reaction.

1039
01:23:23,020 --> 01:23:25,680
and see how logical everything is.

1040
01:23:26,020 --> 01:23:31,540
It makes a lot of sense that at this
spot where supply is emerging, there is

1041
01:23:31,540 --> 01:23:35,960
reaction, and then we need to understand
the character of this reaction.

1042
01:23:36,280 --> 01:23:39,360
And we see that there is no follow
-through to the downside.

1043
01:23:39,580 --> 01:23:44,980
So that confirms the no follow -through,
confirms

1044
01:23:44,980 --> 01:23:51,680
bullish bias, and confirms continuation
to the upside, which

1045
01:23:51,680 --> 01:23:52,930
is... bar number 12.

1046
01:23:53,170 --> 01:23:59,970
so bar number 12 um has a slightly
different um you know characteristic

1047
01:23:59,970 --> 01:24:05,390
uh volume characteristic let me ask you
this tricky question rick where do you

1048
01:24:05,390 --> 01:24:09,730
think there is more on barnabas 11 or
bar number 12.

1049
01:24:19,470 --> 01:24:20,490
what do you think

1050
01:24:31,610 --> 01:24:38,590
Well, I would say that possibly number
11 has more supply

1051
01:24:38,590 --> 01:24:45,290
because of that long tail up to the top,
but it's closed. We'll write it like 50

1052
01:24:45,290 --> 01:24:46,290
% or lower.

1053
01:24:47,830 --> 01:24:50,310
Yes, yes, correct.

1054
01:24:50,890 --> 01:24:54,490
Absolutely correct, and I like the
explanation too.

1055
01:24:55,160 --> 01:24:57,000
So by this tail here,

1056
01:24:57,820 --> 01:25:02,020
we see a supply tail. Yes.

1057
01:25:02,340 --> 01:25:06,780
And we see that the volume signature on
11 and 12, almost equal.

1058
01:25:07,220 --> 01:25:13,860
So think about this. Effort is either

1059
01:25:13,860 --> 01:25:20,400
equal on 11, either equal on 12, either
equal or slightly less

1060
01:25:20,400 --> 01:25:21,400
on 11.

1061
01:25:21,940 --> 01:25:23,840
And then, but yet.

1062
01:25:24,160 --> 01:25:30,720
result on 12 is slightly more or equal

1063
01:25:30,720 --> 01:25:36,700
to well actually better definitely
better than the result on 11.

1064
01:25:37,540 --> 01:25:43,860
so it's the supply that comes at this
point of memory here at point at bar

1065
01:25:43,860 --> 01:25:50,720
number two it increases and it produces
this reaction then at 12 we also have

1066
01:25:52,720 --> 01:25:55,060
some supply coming in, but it's less.

1067
01:25:55,440 --> 01:26:00,660
We see this from the volume signature
that it's slightly diminishing. So if

1068
01:26:00,660 --> 01:26:06,980
volume signature diminishes and the bar
number 12 looks more bullish, then we're

1069
01:26:06,980 --> 01:26:13,360
probably thinking that with that volume
increase, demand has increased more and

1070
01:26:13,360 --> 01:26:19,700
probably supply went down instead of
going up. So we have different volume

1071
01:26:19,700 --> 01:26:21,120
equations here for this.

1072
01:26:22,460 --> 01:26:28,960
Number 11, we would have volume
increase, which is a lot

1073
01:26:28,960 --> 01:26:33,640
increase for the volume at that point of
time. Demand is increasing and supply

1074
01:26:33,640 --> 01:26:34,640
is increasing.

1075
01:26:34,900 --> 01:26:36,540
So that's going to be the difference.

1076
01:26:37,200 --> 01:26:40,660
Increase of the supply and decrease of
the demand. So absolutely correct.

1077
01:26:41,140 --> 01:26:42,940
And then bottom of 12.

1078
01:26:43,160 --> 01:26:47,880
Now think about what we've just done.
We're just saying that bottom of 12 will

1079
01:26:47,880 --> 01:26:49,400
have less of the supply.

1080
01:26:50,010 --> 01:26:52,390
And then demand is probably going to be
the same.

1081
01:26:53,330 --> 01:26:54,670
Bullish or bearish, Rick?

1082
01:26:59,690 --> 01:27:06,530
Apply more demand and the bar X in a
bullish

1083
01:27:06,530 --> 01:27:07,530
way.

1084
01:27:07,830 --> 01:27:08,830
Bullish or bearish?

1085
01:27:12,870 --> 01:27:16,090
I think that's bullish.

1086
01:27:16,510 --> 01:27:18,950
Bullish. You are 10 for 10 on all of the
answers.

1087
01:27:19,340 --> 01:27:23,740
So far. So don't sweat it out. Okay.
Yeah.

1088
01:27:24,040 --> 01:27:25,260
Okay. So bullish.

1089
01:27:25,960 --> 01:27:29,060
We are thinking that there's going to be
a continuation.

1090
01:27:29,300 --> 01:27:32,440
We are still very much in a bullish
mode.

1091
01:27:32,640 --> 01:27:35,200
So at this point of time, we're at the
point of the resistance.

1092
01:27:35,460 --> 01:27:40,720
Think about the logic

1093
01:27:40,720 --> 01:27:45,320
with which we arrived to the close of
bond number 12.

1094
01:27:45,520 --> 01:27:46,900
We are still bullish.

1095
01:27:47,320 --> 01:27:50,300
does this suggest that we're going to
overcome resistance or not?

1096
01:27:52,260 --> 01:27:53,820
Yes, it does. Yes.

1097
01:27:54,360 --> 01:28:00,940
I would say. So do you guys see how bar
by bar we are defining the character of

1098
01:28:00,940 --> 01:28:06,040
the probable next move short term, but
within the context of the structure, we

1099
01:28:06,040 --> 01:28:10,560
could also understand the context of the
swing.

1100
01:28:11,080 --> 01:28:18,030
And of course, once supply has
diminished on bar number 12, and we are

1101
01:28:18,030 --> 01:28:24,290
the resistance at that point, not only
are we going to continue to the upside,

1102
01:28:24,430 --> 01:28:29,370
but because supply is so low, we're
going to accelerate and momentum is

1103
01:28:29,370 --> 01:28:30,790
increase as well.

1104
01:28:31,210 --> 01:28:34,690
Now, everything is so interconnected.

1105
01:28:35,630 --> 01:28:42,290
Each bar produces some kind of reaction,

1106
01:28:42,550 --> 01:28:45,390
future reactions from different market
participants.

1107
01:28:46,080 --> 01:28:47,220
in a specific way.

1108
01:28:47,980 --> 01:28:54,960
As the momentum increases, what do you
think is happening with weekends?

1109
01:28:55,260 --> 01:28:57,780
How are they behaving at this point,
Rick?

1110
01:28:58,220 --> 01:29:00,280
What are they seeing on this breakout?

1111
01:29:07,700 --> 01:29:12,020
They're probably wanting to get in
before they miss the run.

1112
01:29:12,640 --> 01:29:14,320
Absolutely. So they are buyers.

1113
01:29:15,130 --> 01:29:18,410
at this point of time, okay? And they
are excited.

1114
01:29:18,850 --> 01:29:24,490
By the way, excitement for weak hands
happens at which two points?

1115
01:29:27,250 --> 01:29:28,870
At the buying climax.

1116
01:29:30,330 --> 01:29:32,690
Absolutely. This is number one.

1117
01:29:32,930 --> 01:29:35,070
And then at the breakout.

1118
01:29:35,910 --> 01:29:42,030
At the breakout, yeah. The breakout or
it's going to be at the upthrust in the

1119
01:29:42,030 --> 01:29:43,910
distribution. Okay, great.

1120
01:29:44,720 --> 01:29:46,200
Perfect, 12 for 12.

1121
01:29:47,740 --> 01:29:54,220
So it's this excitement by weak hands.
And remember that weak hands

1122
01:29:54,220 --> 01:30:00,880
are not just defined by retail hands,
not just defined by public, but

1123
01:30:00,880 --> 01:30:03,820
weak hands are going to be defined by
institutions.

1124
01:30:04,220 --> 01:30:10,660
And institutions or institutional weak
hands, buyers,

1125
01:30:11,500 --> 01:30:13,540
they're going to bring a lot of
liquidity.

1126
01:30:13,840 --> 01:30:15,580
So the volume is going to increase.

1127
01:30:15,880 --> 01:30:18,600
And we see that. Look at the volume
signature.

1128
01:30:19,740 --> 01:30:26,680
So weak hands are trying to get into
this position before the trend

1129
01:30:26,680 --> 01:30:27,980
runs away from them.

1130
01:30:28,220 --> 01:30:32,940
Okay, so really quickly, switch hats.

1131
01:30:33,200 --> 01:30:39,780
And let's think about, well, as the
strong hands see this situation. So

1132
01:30:39,780 --> 01:30:42,770
hands. seeing the following picture.

1133
01:30:44,250 --> 01:30:49,090
They are seeing a short -term overbought
condition.

1134
01:30:52,570 --> 01:30:56,810
And they're seeing that weak hands
provide a lot of liquidity.

1135
01:31:01,050 --> 01:31:03,710
What is this inviting them to do?

1136
01:31:05,390 --> 01:31:07,250
That's inviting them to sell.

1137
01:31:08,620 --> 01:31:15,320
That's so counterintuitive. Why would
somebody sell when everything is so

1138
01:31:15,320 --> 01:31:19,560
bullish? And that's the whole thing with
trading.

1139
01:31:20,120 --> 01:31:26,520
It's just we are not psychologically
built to trade in a profitable way

1140
01:31:26,520 --> 01:31:33,480
because people are created more as, you
know, flight to safety just because

1141
01:31:33,480 --> 01:31:35,280
we needed to survive as species.

1142
01:31:36,080 --> 01:31:39,320
coming, you know, from the era where we
just were hurt.

1143
01:31:39,660 --> 01:31:43,900
And now we are surviving, you know, like
in the cities, you know, where you

1144
01:31:43,900 --> 01:31:46,800
leave, you have to have a job to survive
and so on and so forth.

1145
01:31:47,140 --> 01:31:51,200
So it's always about protection, right?

1146
01:31:52,320 --> 01:31:58,980
You know, that's why the risk takers
have been rewarded so handsomely is

1147
01:31:58,980 --> 01:32:02,440
it's a counterintuitive thinking. And
here,

1148
01:32:03,660 --> 01:32:10,520
We're just showing that institutions
are, by the conditions of

1149
01:32:10,520 --> 01:32:16,160
what they can do in the market with
their size and with their regulations,

1150
01:32:16,160 --> 01:32:17,800
only can sell at this point.

1151
01:32:18,380 --> 01:32:23,060
Imagine if they would be buyers at this
point. Then the price would just jump up

1152
01:32:23,060 --> 01:32:27,040
so much. Where is the value for them?
They will become weak hands.

1153
01:32:27,360 --> 01:32:28,700
They cannot do this.

1154
01:32:29,640 --> 01:32:34,920
So they're going to sell and take some
profits on the positions that maybe they

1155
01:32:34,920 --> 01:32:35,940
originated before.

1156
01:32:36,340 --> 01:32:37,960
And they're going to scale out.

1157
01:32:38,240 --> 01:32:43,240
They're going to take the profit. The
composite man is just going to hold on

1158
01:32:43,240 --> 01:32:46,120
this. The composite man does not have to
sell.

1159
01:32:46,340 --> 01:32:51,520
But professionals are going to do the
mean reversion trade.

1160
01:32:52,260 --> 01:32:58,020
And then the institutional trend
followers are going to scale out.

1161
01:32:58,560 --> 01:33:03,960
or they're going to start closing out
position, just because, and specifically

1162
01:33:03,960 --> 01:33:05,640
on bar number 14.

1163
01:33:06,220 --> 01:33:12,080
So here is that situation with bar
number 13 and how appropriate.

1164
01:33:12,440 --> 01:33:17,360
By the way, there is nothing wrong with
number 13. I was born on 13, so consider

1165
01:33:17,360 --> 01:33:18,580
this a lucky number for me.

1166
01:33:19,200 --> 01:33:24,860
So it looks so bullish, and it looks
bullish to...

1167
01:33:25,400 --> 01:33:28,800
and a maturistic eye on the volume
signature as well.

1168
01:33:29,120 --> 01:33:35,040
Because, again, where we taught
technical analysis, volume needs to

1169
01:33:35,040 --> 01:33:39,740
price, and it seems that the increase in
the volume signature confirms the

1170
01:33:39,740 --> 01:33:41,620
increase in the spread result.

1171
01:33:42,720 --> 01:33:47,600
So, therefore, the volume confirms the
bullish picture. Then the question by

1172
01:33:47,600 --> 01:33:50,880
students that they get, why does the
price go down after this?

1173
01:33:51,560 --> 01:33:57,060
Well, because what we don't see in this
volume signature is the emergence of the

1174
01:33:57,060 --> 01:34:02,140
supply and emergence of institutional
supply, which is based on the specific

1175
01:34:02,140 --> 01:34:07,020
characteristics of the overbought
condition and liquidity that the weak

1176
01:34:07,320 --> 01:34:14,040
out of the point of excitement, the weak
hands provide at this spot to

1177
01:34:14,040 --> 01:34:15,040
strong hands.

1178
01:34:17,340 --> 01:34:20,820
Rick, are we on the same page here?

1179
01:34:23,600 --> 01:34:26,220
Yes, I absolutely love this stuff.

1180
01:34:26,800 --> 01:34:33,700
Okay, but are we seeing that supply on
bar number 13 is there?

1181
01:34:33,840 --> 01:34:40,080
It's emerging, right? And let's actually
write down the volume

1182
01:34:40,080 --> 01:34:42,480
equation here for bar number 13.

1183
01:34:42,860 --> 01:34:48,500
So tell me what I'm writing here. So
volume obviously increases a lot. What

1184
01:34:48,500 --> 01:34:49,500
demand doing?

1185
01:34:56,010 --> 01:34:57,430
Demand is also increasing.

1186
01:34:58,230 --> 01:35:02,170
Demand is increasing probably the most,
right, because all these weak hands,

1187
01:35:02,370 --> 01:35:05,830
they're so excited they're coming in.
There are a lot of institutional hands

1188
01:35:05,830 --> 01:35:07,890
that are coming in at this position as
well.

1189
01:35:08,210 --> 01:35:11,170
So demand is increasing a lot. What
about supply?

1190
01:35:17,790 --> 01:35:19,610
Supply is increasing.

1191
01:35:20,410 --> 01:35:21,410
Absolutely.

1192
01:35:22,310 --> 01:35:23,630
$4 .15.

1193
01:35:24,550 --> 01:35:29,750
Supply is increasing, but demand is
still dominant at this point. We see

1194
01:35:29,750 --> 01:35:30,489
the close.

1195
01:35:30,490 --> 01:35:31,970
It's still a bullish bar.

1196
01:35:32,510 --> 01:35:39,130
But because of this increase of the
supply, and I've explained

1197
01:35:39,130 --> 01:35:44,690
this concept today probably already
three times, but it's so

1198
01:35:44,710 --> 01:35:46,950
It's so important for us to understand.

1199
01:35:47,850 --> 01:35:51,850
that on the volume spike, there's always
going to be emergence of the supply.

1200
01:35:52,130 --> 01:35:55,850
And we'll have to kind of double -check
as to how that's going to unfold.

1201
01:35:56,590 --> 01:36:00,850
But this emergence of the supply
suggests that this is institutional

1202
01:36:01,150 --> 01:36:03,550
and therefore institutions are selling.

1203
01:36:04,030 --> 01:36:07,510
And if institutions are selling, then
what could we expect, Rick?

1204
01:36:11,130 --> 01:36:16,450
Then we're going to be looking bearish.

1205
01:36:16,830 --> 01:36:20,730
It should be a price come down.

1206
01:36:21,110 --> 01:36:22,590
Stopping, reversal. Stopping action.

1207
01:36:22,990 --> 01:36:27,370
And possibly some kind of trading range
if we're going to have a stop in

1208
01:36:27,370 --> 01:36:32,410
reversal action because we're probably
going to encounter some kind of change

1209
01:36:32,410 --> 01:36:34,250
character that would suggest a trading
range.

1210
01:36:35,530 --> 01:36:40,910
Again, it seems like, is it really
possible to analyze it like this? I

1211
01:36:40,950 --> 01:36:44,450
like, are we looking at the charts and
only because we see what has happened,

1212
01:36:44,450 --> 01:36:45,450
could...

1213
01:36:46,000 --> 01:36:52,520
And now it's like this. Well, obviously,
we're going to know at bar number 38 as

1214
01:36:52,520 --> 01:36:56,640
to, you know, if we could do this or
not.

1215
01:36:57,740 --> 01:37:03,780
But even just looking at number 13 and
with the knowledge that you have, guys,

1216
01:37:03,780 --> 01:37:09,600
right now on how the volume could be
interpreted relative to the price,

1217
01:37:09,600 --> 01:37:14,180
to the structural context, don't you
think that at least you might have a

1218
01:37:14,180 --> 01:37:15,180
suspicion?

1219
01:37:15,370 --> 01:37:21,050
that such a high level of volume
signature might produce a stop in

1220
01:37:21,330 --> 01:37:24,330
And it might not be necessarily a
distribution.

1221
01:37:24,790 --> 01:37:28,110
It just might be a stop in action for a
consolidation.

1222
01:37:29,590 --> 01:37:32,670
Those could be, you know, the variations
on the same.

1223
01:37:33,670 --> 01:37:35,050
All right, great.

1224
01:37:36,470 --> 01:37:39,950
Eric, one last bar, and then we'll go to
someone else.

1225
01:37:40,610 --> 01:37:43,170
So bar number 14. Okay.

1226
01:37:43,680 --> 01:37:47,660
an extremely huge volume signature that
comes.

1227
01:37:48,820 --> 01:37:55,720
So I only have probably one question for
you, and then we'll go on to

1228
01:37:55,720 --> 01:37:56,438
someone else.

1229
01:37:56,440 --> 01:38:00,200
So bar number 14 would define which
Wyckoff event?

1230
01:38:04,340 --> 01:38:08,660
That looks like a hypodermic event right
there.

1231
01:38:09,160 --> 01:38:10,160
Okay.

1232
01:38:10,610 --> 01:38:16,550
probably going to be seen as hypodermic
on the intraday level, right? And on the

1233
01:38:16,550 --> 01:38:22,030
daily it looks like hypodermic as well.
One bar up, speculation on the way up,

1234
01:38:22,190 --> 01:38:24,070
urgency to sell on the way down.

1235
01:38:24,270 --> 01:38:29,830
Okay, great. But how would we label this
area, you know, 13, 14?

1236
01:38:32,930 --> 01:38:38,150
Oh, I'd probably label that a selling
climax.

1237
01:38:39,100 --> 01:38:44,660
It's almost like a selling climax and an
automatic reaction in the same bar.

1238
01:38:45,880 --> 01:38:46,880
Damn it.

1239
01:38:48,160 --> 01:38:52,620
Oh, my gosh. I should have let you go on
bar number 13.

1240
01:38:54,100 --> 01:38:55,100
Oh.

1241
01:38:55,300 --> 01:38:59,540
Oh, hold on a second. Are you talking
about bar number 14 as the selling

1242
01:38:59,540 --> 01:39:00,540
to the low?

1243
01:39:03,300 --> 01:39:04,300
Yeah.

1244
01:39:04,620 --> 01:39:08,960
Okay. So to the low, we could
potentially say, yeah, it looks like a

1245
01:39:08,960 --> 01:39:10,900
climax. But I was asking about this
spot.

1246
01:39:11,180 --> 01:39:16,440
I was asking about this high. So this we
will identify. I was saying that was a

1247
01:39:16,440 --> 01:39:17,440
buying climax.

1248
01:39:17,460 --> 01:39:18,460
Yeah.

1249
01:39:19,160 --> 01:39:23,560
Yeah. So a buying climax. Buying climax
and then automatic

1250
01:39:23,560 --> 01:39:30,260
reaction. Yeah. Yeah.

1251
01:39:30,300 --> 01:39:31,300
Something like that.

1252
01:39:31,670 --> 01:39:33,470
Okay, well, really good job, Rick.

1253
01:39:34,170 --> 01:39:38,790
So I like how you stop to think.

1254
01:39:40,390 --> 01:39:45,410
Because sometimes what I see in students
is there is kind of like this first

1255
01:39:45,410 --> 01:39:51,410
initial impulse to go to a specific
concept right away.

1256
01:39:51,990 --> 01:39:55,630
But I like how you think about this and
then give the answer. And I think that's

1257
01:39:55,630 --> 01:40:00,810
why you went for like 14 out of 15.

1258
01:40:01,800 --> 01:40:02,860
So good job.

1259
01:40:04,240 --> 01:40:09,420
Well, this is the first time I've ever
done bar by bar, but I really like it.

1260
01:40:09,660 --> 01:40:10,760
Okay. Excellent.

1261
01:40:11,000 --> 01:40:14,340
Excellent. I appreciate it. Thanks so
much.

1262
01:40:14,560 --> 01:40:15,660
Absolutely. Thank you, Rick.

1263
01:40:16,600 --> 01:40:17,600
All right.

1264
01:40:18,480 --> 01:40:21,820
Let's go to Ronnie.

1265
01:40:23,040 --> 01:40:24,480
Okay. Let's go to Ronnie.

1266
01:40:25,880 --> 01:40:27,300
Hi, Ronnie. How are you doing?

1267
01:40:28,220 --> 01:40:30,060
Hello. Can you hear me? Yes.

1268
01:40:30,590 --> 01:40:31,590
Yes, good connection.

1269
01:40:31,970 --> 01:40:35,370
Okay, Rony. So we stopped at bar number
14.

1270
01:40:36,350 --> 01:40:40,950
Rick said that this is a buying climax,
not a selling climax. Okay, let's not go

1271
01:40:40,950 --> 01:40:42,910
into the discussion how we would label
this.

1272
01:40:43,750 --> 01:40:49,390
There are usually two discussions that I
have on the buying climax semantics.

1273
01:40:50,450 --> 01:40:53,170
Sometimes people would call it selling
climax intentionally.

1274
01:40:53,450 --> 01:40:55,130
I think we've talked about that.

1275
01:40:55,630 --> 01:40:58,590
And then sometimes, you know, in that.

1276
01:40:58,960 --> 01:41:05,620
It comes from Bruce, a buying climax, so
this is just not necessary, but that's

1277
01:41:05,620 --> 01:41:07,540
okay. He wants to do this, so that's
fine.

1278
01:41:09,500 --> 01:41:15,180
So if this is a buying climax, let me
ask you this question.

1279
01:41:17,620 --> 01:41:22,700
Looking at bars number 13 and bar number

1280
01:41:22,700 --> 01:41:25,260
14,

1281
01:41:27,340 --> 01:41:34,260
Could we speculate about the bias of a
trading range that's going to come?

1282
01:41:34,340 --> 01:41:41,020
Because we said that bar number 14 looks
like a change of character.

1283
01:41:42,940 --> 01:41:48,840
And that suggests a trading range. So at
this point, bar number 14 and bar

1284
01:41:48,840 --> 01:41:52,280
number 13, could we speculate what bias
we could have?

1285
01:41:53,800 --> 01:41:55,140
Maybe to the downside.

1286
01:41:55,900 --> 01:41:58,680
due to the high volume on bar 14?

1287
01:41:58,900 --> 01:42:05,020
Yeah. So we would be thinking the
downspread

1288
01:42:05,020 --> 01:42:09,560
has emerged so much, right? And it just
becomes so big.

1289
01:42:09,960 --> 01:42:16,820
So the result to the downside has
definitely increased a lot. Plus, we've

1290
01:42:16,820 --> 01:42:21,020
seen that the volume in general
increased a lot.

1291
01:42:21,470 --> 01:42:25,790
This is the highest volume signature on
the whole chart.

1292
01:42:26,350 --> 01:42:31,350
So that suggests an increase, a
tremendous increase of the supply.

1293
01:42:32,130 --> 01:42:36,250
We're going to come back to the demand
in a second. I'm going to ask you the

1294
01:42:36,250 --> 01:42:39,990
question now that also would define for
us the result.

1295
01:42:40,250 --> 01:42:44,110
So we usually talk about the spread. We
usually talk about the close.

1296
01:42:44,750 --> 01:42:49,290
So the close is also very, very bearish.
So this is bearish.

1297
01:42:50,350 --> 01:42:51,550
This is bearish.

1298
01:42:52,970 --> 01:42:55,290
And then what about the intention?

1299
01:42:56,590 --> 01:43:01,470
Right? So we talk about the result. We
talk about the spread, close to close,

1300
01:43:01,710 --> 01:43:04,770
close to the spread. And then we talk
about the intention.

1301
01:43:05,170 --> 01:43:10,190
The intention was to do what, by the
way?

1302
01:43:12,770 --> 01:43:18,030
Looks like the intention was to go lower
than the close on bar 12, which it

1303
01:43:18,030 --> 01:43:19,030
failed.

1304
01:43:19,380 --> 01:43:25,780
Okay. And I would say, and I like that
too, you know, bar number 12, close.

1305
01:43:25,780 --> 01:43:30,000
makes a lot of sense to me. But also the
low of the previous significant bar

1306
01:43:30,000 --> 01:43:35,100
right here at 13, right? But they are
almost on the same level there.

1307
01:43:35,380 --> 01:43:39,060
So that was the intention. It was to
commit below.

1308
01:43:39,380 --> 01:43:40,960
And look at the effort.

1309
01:43:41,720 --> 01:43:46,900
I mean, the effort is just so huge to go
to the downside.

1310
01:43:47,180 --> 01:43:48,180
Did we?

1311
01:43:48,700 --> 01:43:50,440
satisfy the intention?

1312
01:43:50,700 --> 01:43:54,440
Did intention come to fruition on bar
number 14?

1313
01:43:55,060 --> 01:43:56,860
No. No.

1314
01:43:57,140 --> 01:44:00,860
So this is an extremely important point,
guys.

1315
01:44:01,660 --> 01:44:08,420
Even though the effort to the downside
has increased so much, look at this bar,

1316
01:44:08,660 --> 01:44:15,460
the intention was to commit below a
specific level and we

1317
01:44:15,460 --> 01:44:16,680
have not done so.

1318
01:44:17,160 --> 01:44:19,110
Bullish? Or bearish?

1319
01:44:20,730 --> 01:44:21,730
Bullish.

1320
01:44:22,130 --> 01:44:23,130
Oh, my gosh.

1321
01:44:23,730 --> 01:44:30,730
What looks so bearish suddenly becomes
so bullish in

1322
01:44:30,730 --> 01:44:34,370
our eyes, in the Wyckoff eyes, in the
Wyckoffian eyes.

1323
01:44:35,330 --> 01:44:38,170
Obviously, we need to see if there's
going to be a continuation.

1324
01:44:39,130 --> 01:44:46,070
But we don't see any strong continuation
in the bars that come between 15 and

1325
01:44:46,070 --> 01:44:50,740
17. All of the bars are just attempts to
go lower. All of the bars are attempts

1326
01:44:50,740 --> 01:44:52,080
to commit to the downside.

1327
01:44:52,760 --> 01:44:59,720
So again, in two bars, bar number 13 and
bar number 14,

1328
01:44:59,800 --> 01:45:06,280
we are coming to the same scenario where
visually we're seeing

1329
01:45:06,280 --> 01:45:12,940
one thing, and then analytically, as we
think about it, we interpret it in a

1330
01:45:12,940 --> 01:45:14,520
completely different way.

1331
01:45:15,280 --> 01:45:18,040
And obviously for both scenarios, we
need a test.

1332
01:45:18,260 --> 01:45:21,740
So don't think linearly that, oh, the
bias is defined.

1333
01:45:22,180 --> 01:45:27,560
Now we don't have to do anything. No,
this is just a bias for now.

1334
01:45:28,000 --> 01:45:34,780
This is a bullish bias. This is an
assumption that we have, assumption for

1335
01:45:34,780 --> 01:45:35,900
trading range bias.

1336
01:45:37,560 --> 01:45:39,100
Does that make sense, guys?

1337
01:45:39,360 --> 01:45:40,880
Really quickly say yes.

1338
01:45:41,220 --> 01:45:43,940
I want to see how you are involved in
this discussion.

1339
01:45:46,039 --> 01:45:51,320
So we are thinking that the bias is
bullish, so therefore we are thinking

1340
01:45:51,320 --> 01:45:55,300
reaccumulation. And now, Ronnie, what
we're going to do through this whole

1341
01:45:55,300 --> 01:45:59,280
trading range, we're just going to
confirm this bias.

1342
01:45:59,600 --> 01:46:04,320
And if we can't find the confirmation,
then we will reverse this bias to

1343
01:46:04,320 --> 01:46:09,960
bearish. And if we confirm the bias,
then we will be thinking that...

1344
01:46:10,480 --> 01:46:15,140
Phase C is going to be the place for us
to open the position or to add to the

1345
01:46:15,140 --> 01:46:16,140
position.

1346
01:46:16,380 --> 01:46:21,480
And then as we see the confirmation of
Phase C, we want to be more aggressive

1347
01:46:21,480 --> 01:46:25,100
get into position much faster to create
more size and so on and so forth.

1348
01:46:26,260 --> 01:46:33,160
Okay, so I mentioned really quickly this
area between 15 and 17. And I said

1349
01:46:33,160 --> 01:46:36,820
that there are a lot of attempts to go
down and all of them fail.

1350
01:46:37,700 --> 01:46:39,000
Bullish or bearish?

1351
01:46:41,040 --> 01:46:46,400
Bullish. Bullish. So I'm kind of looking
at this as the whole area, guys, right?

1352
01:46:46,460 --> 01:46:49,200
And we could go bar by bar. We could
look at bar number 15.

1353
01:46:50,140 --> 01:46:55,300
Clearly an attempt to commit below on
the intraday level and then failure. And

1354
01:46:55,300 --> 01:46:57,900
failure on diminution supply signature.

1355
01:46:58,460 --> 01:47:03,180
Next attempt on next bar. Next attempt
on this red bar. Next attempt on bar

1356
01:47:03,180 --> 01:47:04,059
number 16.

1357
01:47:04,060 --> 01:47:07,800
Next attempt on the next bar after 16.

1358
01:47:08,460 --> 01:47:09,720
Next small attempt.

1359
01:47:11,240 --> 01:47:18,120
around board number 17, and that all
happens on the extremely low

1360
01:47:18,120 --> 01:47:19,120
volume signature.

1361
01:47:19,520 --> 01:47:21,860
So that all suggests a couple of things.

1362
01:47:22,060 --> 01:47:28,880
As I mentioned, attempt to go down,
failure, absorption of the supply, and a

1363
01:47:28,880 --> 01:47:32,420
period that it takes to absorb the
supply.

1364
01:47:33,320 --> 01:47:40,160
Okay, well, how about a structure, Roni?
How would we...

1365
01:47:40,670 --> 01:47:47,330
label this trading range, let's say, up
to point number 17, and what

1366
01:47:47,330 --> 01:47:48,990
phase are we in right now?

1367
01:47:50,950 --> 01:47:57,890
I would say around bar 14 was the buying

1368
01:47:57,890 --> 01:48:00,070
climax with an automatic reaction.

1369
01:48:00,990 --> 01:48:06,230
Okay, to the 15, I would presume, right?
Yeah, yeah. Okay.

1370
01:48:06,650 --> 01:48:08,550
So that is phase A.

1371
01:48:09,840 --> 01:48:13,400
Okay, well, we need a secondary test.
Oh, yeah, secondary. Sorry, sorry.

1372
01:48:13,600 --> 01:48:15,720
So the next bar is a secondary test?

1373
01:48:16,080 --> 01:48:20,500
Yeah, and this is a very interesting
idea, what Rony just said.

1374
01:48:21,020 --> 01:48:26,820
So we are thinking that maybe the next
rally up, and by the way, we had another

1375
01:48:26,820 --> 01:48:29,300
rally here, would be a secondary test.

1376
01:48:29,580 --> 01:48:36,200
And someone might say, aren't we testing
the highs here of the buying climax?

1377
01:48:37,420 --> 01:48:38,780
Wouldn't the price have to?

1378
01:48:39,130 --> 01:48:46,090
come up so high wouldn't the test will
be at point number 19 and I think that

1379
01:48:46,090 --> 01:48:52,870
we could definitely think this way
knowing what has happened obviously

1380
01:48:52,870 --> 01:48:59,790
and it's easier when it happens this way
we know that probably the

1381
01:48:59,790 --> 01:49:04,950
secondary tests in phase A were kind of
like very mediocre attempts to retest

1382
01:49:04,950 --> 01:49:11,000
and they just didn't go up up that much.
Why? Well, because there is so much

1383
01:49:11,000 --> 01:49:13,080
supply on bar number 14.

1384
01:49:13,400 --> 01:49:18,880
So a series of secondary tests and the
conclusion of phase A is somewhere here.

1385
01:49:19,140 --> 01:49:24,420
And then 16 could act as the low in
phase B.

1386
01:49:24,840 --> 01:49:29,720
So we are in, we concluded A and now we
are in phase B.

1387
01:49:30,780 --> 01:49:35,920
Okay, so Ronnie, if we are in phase B,
then 16 would be labeled as

1388
01:49:37,220 --> 01:49:42,680
Secondary tests. Secondary tests. We're
testing the levels of supply at the

1389
01:49:42,680 --> 01:49:44,400
level of support.

1390
01:49:44,780 --> 01:49:49,920
Okay, great. And then point 19 in phase
B will be labeled as?

1391
01:49:52,540 --> 01:49:54,720
What was that again?

1392
01:49:57,000 --> 01:50:00,980
Point number 19 in phase B could be
labeled as?

1393
01:50:07,440 --> 01:50:09,600
Isn't that a secondary test to the
upside?

1394
01:50:09,860 --> 01:50:14,480
You could do that. You could say that
this is a test of the buying climax,

1395
01:50:14,600 --> 01:50:15,600
absolutely.

1396
01:50:15,700 --> 01:50:19,800
We would be thinking that there's going
to be always an attempt to upthrust,

1397
01:50:20,040 --> 01:50:25,520
right? But it fails because this is a
low or high, so we could also label this

1398
01:50:25,520 --> 01:50:28,140
as failed upthrust.

1399
01:50:29,120 --> 01:50:30,120
Okay.

1400
01:50:31,380 --> 01:50:34,120
Okay. All right. And then...

1401
01:50:34,960 --> 01:50:39,040
Just because we already see the history,
where do you think phase C is?

1402
01:50:40,460 --> 01:50:41,520
Bar 22.

1403
01:50:42,540 --> 01:50:45,400
22, okay. But just one bar?

1404
01:50:46,520 --> 01:50:51,200
No, I will have a secondary test of that
one. So that would be bar 24.

1405
01:50:51,700 --> 01:50:52,840
24, okay.

1406
01:50:53,220 --> 01:50:59,040
And where do you think, because we're
thinking that phase C for us is all

1407
01:50:59,040 --> 01:51:01,160
what? What's the intention behind phase
C?

1408
01:51:02,520 --> 01:51:03,760
Testing the supply.

1409
01:51:04,400 --> 01:51:10,840
of the supply at the level of the
support.

1410
01:51:11,780 --> 01:51:16,960
And where do you think is the first bar
where such test takes place?

1411
01:51:21,240 --> 01:51:23,340
Probably bar 21.

1412
01:51:23,680 --> 01:51:25,140
Yeah, most likely.

1413
01:51:26,160 --> 01:51:32,200
Look at how we are first testing at this
level the previous local support here.

1414
01:51:32,280 --> 01:51:33,280
That's number one.

1415
01:51:33,360 --> 01:51:37,480
Secondly, we're testing the support of
bar number 18, which is an extremely

1416
01:51:37,480 --> 01:51:39,260
important bar. We're going to come back
to that.

1417
01:51:39,700 --> 01:51:46,700
And bar number 21 is the first bar that
has that test.

1418
01:51:47,120 --> 01:51:53,980
So this should be the beginning of phase
C with that bar.

1419
01:51:54,730 --> 01:52:00,210
And then the conclusion is going to be
not at 22, but as Rony has said, some

1420
01:52:00,210 --> 01:52:01,550
path connection at 24.

1421
01:52:02,870 --> 01:52:07,730
So that would be our phase C, and then
obviously everything in between is going

1422
01:52:07,730 --> 01:52:10,350
to be phase B.

1423
01:52:11,010 --> 01:52:16,010
We'll talk about phase D later on, but
Rony, let's come back to

1424
01:52:16,010 --> 01:52:22,330
phase B, and specifically I want to talk
about bar number

1425
01:52:22,330 --> 01:52:23,550
18.

1426
01:52:25,589 --> 01:52:32,110
Yeah. So this is like a very bullish
bar.

1427
01:52:34,510 --> 01:52:41,110
Yeah. And my question to you is, what do
you think is happening there? So let's

1428
01:52:41,110 --> 01:52:42,950
write the volume equation first.

1429
01:52:43,550 --> 01:52:46,170
So the volume is increasing a lot.

1430
01:52:47,470 --> 01:52:48,470
Yeah.

1431
01:52:49,830 --> 01:52:52,170
What does it mean for the demand?

1432
01:52:53,410 --> 01:52:54,410
High demand.

1433
01:52:57,260 --> 01:53:03,180
So please note, guys, that this is, at
that point of time, the third highest

1434
01:53:03,180 --> 01:53:04,280
volume signature.

1435
01:53:05,540 --> 01:53:09,680
So a volume spike, so demand is
increasing a lot.

1436
01:53:10,000 --> 01:53:12,220
And then what do you think supply is
doing?

1437
01:53:13,320 --> 01:53:14,320
Increasing as well.

1438
01:53:15,660 --> 01:53:16,660
Why?

1439
01:53:17,780 --> 01:53:22,240
Looking at the tail at the top, it's the
supply coming in.

1440
01:53:22,700 --> 01:53:24,780
Yes, but the tail is not that big.

1441
01:53:25,150 --> 01:53:26,730
Right? I mean, like, this is the tail.

1442
01:53:27,270 --> 01:53:33,550
So relative to the whole body of the
spread, it still looks extremely

1443
01:53:33,610 --> 01:53:38,850
It's in the probably, what, the top 10 %
for the spread size.

1444
01:53:39,190 --> 01:53:44,810
Okay? So we know that from just the
volume increase itself, supply is

1445
01:53:44,810 --> 01:53:45,809
increasing.

1446
01:53:45,810 --> 01:53:51,030
But I'm going to challenge you and the
whole group to give me a different

1447
01:53:51,030 --> 01:53:52,030
answer.

1448
01:53:52,470 --> 01:53:54,590
How do we define...

1449
01:53:55,040 --> 01:54:00,660
the emergence of the supply on this bar,
how could we extract this information

1450
01:54:00,660 --> 01:54:04,200
from which other source, maybe?

1451
01:54:05,400 --> 01:54:07,240
Compared to bar 13?

1452
01:54:07,720 --> 01:54:13,900
Oh, so good. And I see here, Nilesh,
Nuri

1453
01:54:13,900 --> 01:54:17,260
is also suggesting the same thing.

1454
01:54:17,500 --> 01:54:23,160
Compared to bar number 13. So, Rony, why
would we compare to bar number 13?

1455
01:54:24,080 --> 01:54:26,040
It has the same volume signature?

1456
01:54:26,420 --> 01:54:30,560
Yeah. It's the analog volume signature.
Look at this, guys.

1457
01:54:32,100 --> 01:54:35,660
Analog volume signature.

1458
01:54:38,420 --> 01:54:44,640
Okay, great. And also, spread -wise, we
also have two bullish bars, right?

1459
01:54:45,020 --> 01:54:51,500
And they are both expending in the
spread. Okay, so if this is bar number

1460
01:54:52,520 --> 01:54:56,840
So then let's quickly write the volume
equation for bar number 13.

1461
01:54:57,180 --> 01:55:00,460
So we have the volume increase.

1462
01:55:01,740 --> 01:55:06,480
We have the demand increase, as we said.

1463
01:55:06,820 --> 01:55:10,040
And we definitely said that there is
supply increase.

1464
01:55:10,440 --> 01:55:16,400
Where do you think supply is increasing
more? So this is kind of like a tricky

1465
01:55:16,400 --> 01:55:17,400
question.

1466
01:55:18,700 --> 01:55:20,700
I would think supply is...

1467
01:55:21,480 --> 01:55:23,220
Coming in more on bar 18.

1468
01:55:23,500 --> 01:55:24,500
Why?

1469
01:55:25,880 --> 01:55:27,000
Lower spread.

1470
01:55:27,860 --> 01:55:28,860
Yes.

1471
01:55:29,420 --> 01:55:35,140
Great. So now I see that you guys are
following me. Now I see that you

1472
01:55:35,140 --> 01:55:36,380
understand this concept.

1473
01:55:37,540 --> 01:55:43,140
Right? What looks so bullish has a
hidden gift.

1474
01:55:43,420 --> 01:55:45,640
A Trojan horse.

1475
01:55:46,440 --> 01:55:48,880
It's hidden inside. It's invisible.

1476
01:55:49,640 --> 01:55:52,620
and it's a limitation of the volume as a
tool.

1477
01:55:53,340 --> 01:56:00,160
We don't see the distinction between
supply and demand on this bar. I

1478
01:56:00,160 --> 01:56:03,820
like this, a Trojan bearish insight.

1479
01:56:04,060 --> 01:56:05,180
I like that very much.

1480
01:56:06,400 --> 01:56:13,200
So supply is definitely increasing more
on bar number 18 than on

1481
01:56:13,200 --> 01:56:16,780
bar number 13. Why? Because the effort
is the same.

1482
01:56:19,720 --> 01:56:21,680
We see this from the volume signature.

1483
01:56:21,900 --> 01:56:26,700
There is no difference in the volume
signature, so effort stays the same.

1484
01:56:27,440 --> 01:56:34,300
And yet, the result to the upside on bar
number 18

1485
01:56:34,300 --> 01:56:40,480
is less than the result to the upside on
bar number 13.

1486
01:56:41,120 --> 01:56:45,480
So that suggests a more bearish
scenario, or rather,

1487
01:56:46,330 --> 01:56:53,170
more supply available at this point of
time. Now, if that's the case, now the

1488
01:56:53,170 --> 01:57:00,090
next tricky question, and A for the day,
if you're going to get

1489
01:57:00,090 --> 01:57:07,010
this, Ronnie, does it mean if supply is
increasing on 18 more,

1490
01:57:07,230 --> 01:57:13,390
does it mean that the intention behind
this whole

1491
01:57:13,390 --> 01:57:19,900
swing, swing number eight, to commit
above the high of bond number 14 will be

1492
01:57:19,900 --> 01:57:21,140
satisfied or not?

1493
01:57:24,260 --> 01:57:26,000
No. No.

1494
01:57:27,940 --> 01:57:34,740
We could see how we could develop this
logic and we could

1495
01:57:34,740 --> 01:57:39,660
think if we are in the position, let's
say swing position, and maybe we open

1496
01:57:39,660 --> 01:57:41,220
position somewhere at the lows.

1497
01:57:42,290 --> 01:57:45,890
maybe somewhere here between bar number
16 and 17.

1498
01:57:46,230 --> 01:57:51,550
As we see in number 18, we are starting
to doubt that we could overcome the

1499
01:57:51,550 --> 01:57:52,810
resistance at this point.

1500
01:57:54,670 --> 01:58:00,950
So, and we're saying that we need to be
probably sellers in this resistance

1501
01:58:00,950 --> 01:58:07,380
cluster. By the way, Ronnie, number 18,
As it suggests the presence of the

1502
01:58:07,380 --> 01:58:10,540
supply, it suggests that we might not
overcome the resistance.

1503
01:58:11,000 --> 01:58:15,780
Does it also suggest that we still might
come into the resistance cluster

1504
01:58:15,780 --> 01:58:17,400
between 14 and 13?

1505
01:58:18,480 --> 01:58:19,480
And why?

1506
01:58:21,340 --> 01:58:24,160
It's still bullish, I would guess, yes.

1507
01:58:24,600 --> 01:58:27,340
Yeah, there is still a lot of momentum
to the upside.

1508
01:58:28,010 --> 01:58:31,430
And that's the whole counterintuitive
concept right now.

1509
01:58:31,970 --> 01:58:36,630
I talk a lot about this today, but it's
such an important concept. If you get

1510
01:58:36,630 --> 01:58:42,330
this, I think that your mental thinking
is going to be different. You're going

1511
01:58:42,330 --> 01:58:48,190
to shift into more of a thinking of how
institutions behave.

1512
01:58:48,800 --> 01:58:52,340
and therefore you will be more aligned
with the market itself.

1513
01:58:52,860 --> 01:58:58,280
Because if you think about how the
market moves, the market is not the

1514
01:58:58,280 --> 01:59:03,440
itself. The market is comprised of so
many people, and all of them are just

1515
01:59:03,440 --> 01:59:08,440
basically with their buys and sells,
give their opinion on what the market

1516
01:59:08,440 --> 01:59:10,280
should do at one point or another.

1517
01:59:15,880 --> 01:59:22,380
In some instances, we might be seeing a
lot of bullish activity, but on the

1518
01:59:22,380 --> 01:59:27,360
background, there's going to be already
some of the distribution that's going to

1519
01:59:27,360 --> 01:59:33,160
happen. And therefore, when institutions
provide this type of behaviors, they

1520
01:59:33,160 --> 01:59:36,960
are the ones that are basically creating
the whole market structure.

1521
01:59:37,340 --> 01:59:41,600
They are creating the swings to the
upside, to the downside, and then in

1522
01:59:41,600 --> 01:59:46,930
between, there are some market
participants that either provide at

1523
01:59:47,150 --> 01:59:52,690
to those larger institutions, or they
are able to move the price at certain

1524
01:59:52,690 --> 01:59:58,830
spots where composite man is not that
available and

1525
01:59:58,830 --> 02:00:05,590
inactive. And we are just following that
footstep. We are following that way of

1526
02:00:05,590 --> 02:00:11,250
thinking. And the closer we are to that
way of thinking, the more in line we are

1527
02:00:11,250 --> 02:00:13,410
with the market movement itself.

1528
02:00:14,250 --> 02:00:15,250
All right.

1529
02:00:15,410 --> 02:00:21,630
Ronnie, really good analysis here with
the suggestion that, yes, we're going to

1530
02:00:21,630 --> 02:00:27,150
come into the zone. And now let's look
at the comparison between bars number 18

1531
02:00:27,150 --> 02:00:28,410
and 19.

1532
02:00:28,630 --> 02:00:34,730
So let's talk about the effort on bar
number 19, obviously to the upside.

1533
02:00:35,410 --> 02:00:38,010
And look at this effort increase.

1534
02:00:39,150 --> 02:00:41,050
Yeah, it's the highest ever.

1535
02:00:41,640 --> 02:00:43,400
So far in the range.

1536
02:00:43,700 --> 02:00:50,460
Absolutely. And it comes at the point of
resistance here, right? So the

1537
02:00:50,460 --> 02:00:53,460
up result for this bar is doing what?

1538
02:00:55,020 --> 02:00:57,320
I can repeat. You kind of cut out.

1539
02:00:57,600 --> 02:01:00,200
Okay. So what is the result for bar
number 19?

1540
02:01:02,220 --> 02:01:09,140
It's closing roughly almost to the 50%,
the

1541
02:01:09,140 --> 02:01:10,140
19.

1542
02:01:11,530 --> 02:01:14,650
Spread is comparable to bar 18?

1543
02:01:15,050 --> 02:01:16,550
I would say dimension.

1544
02:01:17,290 --> 02:01:18,290
Yeah, dimension.

1545
02:01:18,470 --> 02:01:21,370
I mean, yeah, slightly dimension.

1546
02:01:21,830 --> 02:01:27,650
So let's just write this down. So spread
on the 19, slightly dimension.

1547
02:01:28,490 --> 02:01:32,630
You set the close to the spread.

1548
02:01:34,250 --> 02:01:40,850
It's slightly bearish because it's...

1549
02:01:41,210 --> 02:01:43,090
Closer to one half, as you said.

1550
02:01:43,330 --> 02:01:45,830
So diminution spread also varies.

1551
02:01:47,070 --> 02:01:53,390
And the closing price looks like it's
the same as the closing price on bar 13.

1552
02:01:53,530 --> 02:02:00,310
Yes. So close to close from 18 to 19.
There is no such progression as we've

1553
02:02:00,310 --> 02:02:07,030
before from, let's say, 17 .5 to 18. So
there is diminution upthrust.

1554
02:02:07,450 --> 02:02:12,830
on the close but also a great comment by
by ronnie look at the close at bar

1555
02:02:12,830 --> 02:02:13,809
number 13.

1556
02:02:13,810 --> 02:02:20,190
so instead of closing above this we're
kind of like resting on the same level

1557
02:02:20,190 --> 02:02:26,810
and that happens even on the uh higher
larger effort signature uh which

1558
02:02:26,810 --> 02:02:33,710
that supply is just so present at this
point so close to close bearish and then

1559
02:02:33,710 --> 02:02:37,280
ronnie what was the intention behind Bar
number 19.

1560
02:02:38,340 --> 02:02:40,840
To commit above bar 14?

1561
02:02:41,240 --> 02:02:47,720
Absolutely, and we obviously did not do
this, so no. Again, very bearish. So

1562
02:02:47,720 --> 02:02:52,460
everything in the result looks bearish,
bearish, bearish, and that's on the

1563
02:02:52,460 --> 02:02:56,720
increased effort signature, which we
said has been increased, significant

1564
02:02:56,720 --> 02:02:57,860
increase in the supply.

1565
02:02:58,080 --> 02:03:01,540
What can we expect, Rania, from bar
number 19?

1566
02:03:01,800 --> 02:03:03,140
What should come next?

1567
02:03:04,400 --> 02:03:05,420
Lower price.

1568
02:03:06,010 --> 02:03:07,970
Yeah, we should have some kind of
reaction.

1569
02:03:08,770 --> 02:03:11,750
Now we're thinking in terms of our
structure.

1570
02:03:12,010 --> 02:03:18,470
If we're going to have some kind of
reaction in phase B, and we had a

1571
02:03:18,470 --> 02:03:25,470
test at the support level, now test at
the resistance

1572
02:03:25,470 --> 02:03:29,870
level in phase B, so then the next
reaction is going to go where?

1573
02:03:30,250 --> 02:03:31,910
Into potential phase C?

1574
02:03:32,830 --> 02:03:34,230
Yeah. Yeah.

1575
02:03:34,730 --> 02:03:40,810
And that's how we are combining the
volume and spread analysis with the

1576
02:03:40,810 --> 02:03:45,330
structural analysis, right? So we're
always going to be thinking local

1577
02:03:52,130 --> 02:03:58,390
And here we're going to say we see how
this local picture becomes bearish.

1578
02:03:58,590 --> 02:04:00,490
And then in the global,

1579
02:04:02,060 --> 02:04:08,540
picture we're going to say this happens
in phase b so therefore we are

1580
02:04:08,540 --> 02:04:15,420
that reaction that we're going to have
might be the reaction into phase c now

1581
02:04:15,420 --> 02:04:20,600
confirm this we need to see third test

1582
02:04:20,600 --> 02:04:27,300
we need to see second point of fear and
we also

1583
02:04:27,300 --> 02:04:28,820
would love to see

1584
02:04:29,610 --> 02:04:33,890
And this is something that we will study
next time. We're going to talk about

1585
02:04:33,890 --> 02:04:40,470
phase volume analysis. We want to see
the volume signature to diminish into

1586
02:04:40,470 --> 02:04:42,350
phase C.

1587
02:04:42,810 --> 02:04:46,330
And, Ronnie, would you say that we have
all three of those?

1588
02:04:48,350 --> 02:04:49,350
Yeah.

1589
02:04:50,050 --> 02:04:54,350
Yeah, so we are confirming phase C in
that way.

1590
02:04:54,770 --> 02:04:55,890
Okay, great.

1591
02:04:58,120 --> 02:05:00,080
What else is interesting here?

1592
02:05:00,420 --> 02:05:06,680
So bar number 21, some additional
characteristics. The volume signature

1593
02:05:06,680 --> 02:05:07,599
increased here.

1594
02:05:07,600 --> 02:05:10,840
And then what does that suggest, Ron?

1595
02:05:12,160 --> 02:05:13,300
Increase in supply.

1596
02:05:15,300 --> 02:05:16,820
Supply has increased, yes.

1597
02:05:17,060 --> 02:05:18,200
What about demand?

1598
02:05:22,400 --> 02:05:25,400
Slightly. Well, compared to supply, it's
down.

1599
02:05:26,510 --> 02:05:32,370
It's smaller compared to the supply
because supply still dominates the

1600
02:05:32,430 --> 02:05:33,530
We closed down.

1601
02:05:34,090 --> 02:05:37,650
But did demand increase or decrease on
that bar?

1602
02:05:44,690 --> 02:05:46,990
Decrease. What did you say?

1603
02:05:47,990 --> 02:05:49,950
Decrease, down, slightly down.

1604
02:05:51,070 --> 02:05:54,330
I would say that probably it's up.

1605
02:05:55,179 --> 02:06:00,320
And the reason why is because let's just
look at the intraday picture and blow

1606
02:06:00,320 --> 02:06:02,580
it up. So we have the previous close.

1607
02:06:03,720 --> 02:06:07,060
So close there. And then we have a gap
down.

1608
02:06:08,100 --> 02:06:09,560
So gap down.

1609
02:06:11,500 --> 02:06:18,360
So that suggests what kind of intraday
first move,

1610
02:06:18,460 --> 02:06:19,460
what do you think?

1611
02:06:21,080 --> 02:06:22,960
To the upside or to the downside?

1612
02:06:24,889 --> 02:06:28,390
Probably to the upside, maybe, or no,
downside.

1613
02:06:28,950 --> 02:06:33,330
Yeah, probably to the downside. So let's
kind of like put the logic behind this

1614
02:06:33,330 --> 02:06:38,910
assumption. And then again, we might be
wrong, but we will be right more time

1615
02:06:38,910 --> 02:06:40,610
about this assumption than wrong.

1616
02:06:41,230 --> 02:06:46,490
So the logic here is that with the gap
down, momentum is to the upside or to

1617
02:06:46,490 --> 02:06:47,490
downside?

1618
02:06:47,710 --> 02:06:48,710
Downside.

1619
02:06:49,119 --> 02:06:51,400
Momentum increases to the downside.

1620
02:06:51,860 --> 02:06:55,860
And then also contextually for the whole
swing. Are we in the upswing or the

1621
02:06:55,860 --> 02:06:56,860
downswing?

1622
02:06:57,200 --> 02:07:02,920
Downswing. So the momentum is still and
the bias is still to the downside. So

1623
02:07:02,920 --> 02:07:08,260
most likely after the open, we are
continuing with momentum to the

1624
02:07:08,740 --> 02:07:12,680
Then we're coming up back and we are
rallying.

1625
02:07:13,000 --> 02:07:17,900
up to the what maybe the high of the
previous bar so we overcome in the

1626
02:07:17,900 --> 02:07:24,180
close and then we are selling off well
actually should we do this a little bit

1627
02:07:24,180 --> 02:07:30,740
lower like this like this and then we
slightly closing lower than the open

1628
02:07:30,740 --> 02:07:36,340
so this is the actual let me redraw a
little bit here

1629
02:07:36,340 --> 02:07:40,200
okay so here's the intraday action

1630
02:07:41,680 --> 02:07:44,200
So we're seeing that, yes,

1631
02:07:44,940 --> 02:07:49,460
there is some supply that is increasing.
There is some supply at the end of the

1632
02:07:49,460 --> 02:07:51,520
session. But we also see some demand.

1633
02:07:51,780 --> 02:07:56,900
I mean, look at this intraday rally that
we have had. It has closed the gap

1634
02:07:56,900 --> 02:08:00,960
down. So most likely that happens on the
increased demand signature.

1635
02:08:01,360 --> 02:08:07,120
We also could conclude that the demand
is increasing at this point by the way

1636
02:08:07,120 --> 02:08:09,740
how the tail looks and with that
increase.

1637
02:08:10,190 --> 02:08:14,450
you know volume overall increase of
volume signature so that would suggest

1638
02:08:14,450 --> 02:08:19,250
demand is increasing but if we're not
sure think about the intraday and think

1639
02:08:19,250 --> 02:08:24,070
about what kind of rallies and reactions
we have there ronnie what do you think

1640
02:08:24,070 --> 02:08:30,930
uh what do you mean well are

1641
02:08:30,930 --> 02:08:36,530
we you know are we getting all of this
yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah okay good good

1642
02:08:36,530 --> 02:08:40,910
so we're shooting for 15 out of 15 here,
so.

1643
02:08:42,150 --> 02:08:43,150
All right.

1644
02:08:45,170 --> 02:08:46,810
Okay, so next point.

1645
02:08:47,110 --> 02:08:53,670
So this looks like demand on 21 is
coming in. And it also stops the price

1646
02:08:53,670 --> 02:08:55,930
moving further down.

1647
02:08:56,410 --> 02:09:00,150
So kind of suggest a local stop in
action.

1648
02:09:00,490 --> 02:09:02,670
So imagine if this is a selling climax.

1649
02:09:03,790 --> 02:09:08,650
Automatic rally, secondary test, phase
B, phase C.

1650
02:09:09,040 --> 02:09:15,540
So we, on the intraday level, could
probably figure

1651
02:09:15,540 --> 02:09:21,180
out the phases here for this trading
range and try to enter right there.

1652
02:09:22,340 --> 02:09:27,120
Okay, so if you are an advanced trader
and you have time to follow the intraday

1653
02:09:27,120 --> 02:09:29,220
structure, then we could definitely do
that.

1654
02:09:29,760 --> 02:09:35,120
Through this structure or through this
reaction from 19 to 24.

1655
02:09:36,490 --> 02:09:38,450
What is happening with supply?

1656
02:09:40,150 --> 02:09:45,230
Diminishing with a local spike at 21.

1657
02:09:45,870 --> 02:09:51,890
Yeah, so highest supply was at 18 and
19.

1658
02:09:53,090 --> 02:09:59,410
And then to the downside, yes, this is
where supply has increased and

1659
02:09:59,410 --> 02:10:04,630
demand came in and absorbed it. And then
we're seeing how drastically.

1660
02:10:05,420 --> 02:10:08,120
supply diminishes throughout the whole
structure.

1661
02:10:08,480 --> 02:10:13,180
Meanwhile, within this structure, what
do we do?

1662
02:10:13,560 --> 02:10:20,040
And looking at where we are, we are
making a higher low at the 24.

1663
02:10:21,340 --> 02:10:26,800
We are making an intermediate high at
23.

1664
02:10:28,620 --> 02:10:33,160
And so this is intermediate high.

1665
02:10:34,380 --> 02:10:37,720
And that's on the background of
diminishing supply signature.

1666
02:10:38,600 --> 02:10:44,260
So these are the characteristics that we
have seen somewhere prior to that,

1667
02:10:44,380 --> 02:10:46,860
right? So we've seen it probably
somewhere here.

1668
02:10:47,520 --> 02:10:54,020
Look at how supply diminishes, how it
goes and diminishes into phase C.

1669
02:10:54,380 --> 02:10:59,580
And we're starting to have higher lows
and then higher highs, intermediate

1670
02:10:59,580 --> 02:11:00,580
higher highs.

1671
02:11:00,780 --> 02:11:02,700
So out of...

1672
02:11:03,040 --> 02:11:06,340
Point number nine and ten, we had a very
robust rally.

1673
02:11:06,620 --> 02:11:12,060
So now that we've seen this action
again, and we are suspecting that this

1674
02:11:12,060 --> 02:11:18,160
phase C, what kind of character of a
move we could expect

1675
02:11:18,160 --> 02:11:22,220
relative to what we've had on swing
number six?

1676
02:11:26,920 --> 02:11:28,520
Should be bigger.

1677
02:11:29,240 --> 02:11:31,960
Yeah, should be bigger, right?

1678
02:11:32,940 --> 02:11:39,620
We're thinking that, well, first of all,
causality here is much more of what

1679
02:11:39,620 --> 02:11:41,640
we've seen in this area right here.

1680
02:11:42,420 --> 02:11:47,660
Secondly, it seems that there's some
institutional accumulation that we've

1681
02:11:47,660 --> 02:11:48,680
on the way up.

1682
02:11:50,420 --> 02:11:56,300
So if this is a CEO type of
accumulation, which it is, then we

1683
02:11:56,300 --> 02:12:01,700
would be thinking that they are not
going to sell in this trading range.

1684
02:12:02,240 --> 02:12:05,560
and then the price is still going to go
higher.

1685
02:12:06,960 --> 02:12:13,940
We're also seeing that by the analog
that we are going to have some kind of

1686
02:12:13,940 --> 02:12:16,880
rally. We're just thinking of which
character, which type.

1687
02:12:18,280 --> 02:12:24,020
We're probably still a little bit
conscious and suspicious about the

1688
02:12:24,020 --> 02:12:27,060
that's coming in at 14, 18, 19.

1689
02:12:27,620 --> 02:12:32,590
So in phase C, we know that Somewhere in
the future, we will have to overcome

1690
02:12:32,590 --> 02:12:33,589
this area.

1691
02:12:33,590 --> 02:12:40,070
So therefore, we are expecting supply to
come

1692
02:12:40,070 --> 02:12:46,610
to emerge at the point of the
resistance.

1693
02:12:47,070 --> 02:12:52,510
Now, this idea suggests that still
duration is going to increase.

1694
02:12:52,970 --> 02:12:56,790
If duration is going to increase, then
the cause is going to increase.

1695
02:12:57,610 --> 02:13:02,390
and then our targets are probably going
to increase, and we're probably going to

1696
02:13:02,390 --> 02:13:09,150
have, you know, a better rally in terms
of how much it rallies distance -wise

1697
02:13:09,150 --> 02:13:10,930
or the way of how it rallies.

1698
02:13:11,470 --> 02:13:17,010
And we probably could see this one, two,
three, four, five, five and a half

1699
02:13:17,010 --> 02:13:18,010
maybe.

1700
02:13:18,230 --> 02:13:24,010
So one, two, three, four, five, five and
a half. So this is the distance that we

1701
02:13:24,010 --> 02:13:25,970
would be expecting, one -to -one
distance.

1702
02:13:27,320 --> 02:13:32,860
if we would be comparing this type of
rallies to each other.

1703
02:13:34,000 --> 02:13:39,640
But as Ronja said, we're expecting a
better rally, so the betterness of the

1704
02:13:39,640 --> 02:13:44,260
rally could come in the extra distance
that it could travel, and we see that

1705
02:13:44,260 --> 02:13:50,400
there is actually some extra distance
that has been traveled. So that's one of

1706
02:13:50,400 --> 02:13:54,900
the things that we could always consider
when we're discussing the character.

1707
02:13:55,460 --> 02:14:02,320
Okay. And we said that we are expecting
supply to emerge around the

1708
02:14:02,320 --> 02:14:07,820
resistance area as the price is going to
come to the point of the resistance.

1709
02:14:08,020 --> 02:14:10,120
And that's going to be a test.

1710
02:14:11,580 --> 02:14:17,400
Okay, well, Ronnie, let's talk about
that emergence of the

1711
02:14:17,400 --> 02:14:19,300
supply at the resistance.

1712
02:14:19,680 --> 02:14:22,020
So let's talk about first...

1713
02:14:24,160 --> 02:14:31,020
Let's talk about bar number 24 because
this

1714
02:14:31,020 --> 02:14:35,440
is where the story starts for that
supply.

1715
02:14:35,840 --> 02:14:42,380
So 24 is a very interesting bar because
it's not necessarily a

1716
02:14:42,380 --> 02:14:47,720
very kind of like attention calling on
itself bar, right?

1717
02:14:48,830 --> 02:14:53,810
Kind of like a medium -sized spread to
the upside, medium -sized volume bar.

1718
02:14:54,090 --> 02:14:59,110
But what do you think is significant
about this bar?

1719
02:14:59,330 --> 02:15:04,750
Is there anything that we could extract
as the information on the confirmation

1720
02:15:04,750 --> 02:15:10,470
of the bias or what should happen next?
Or how would we compare this bar to

1721
02:15:10,470 --> 02:15:11,590
maybe previous bars?

1722
02:15:12,930 --> 02:15:16,810
Compared to the volume on previous bars,
it's almost half.

1723
02:15:17,370 --> 02:15:20,690
So it has a much easier movement to the
upside.

1724
02:15:21,870 --> 02:15:26,250
So the volume signature is somewhat
average.

1725
02:15:27,290 --> 02:15:31,790
Okay. And then on this average volume
signature, what kind of result do we

1726
02:15:31,990 --> 02:15:36,430
Well, we also kind of get, you know,
average bullish results.

1727
02:15:37,510 --> 02:15:42,730
Why average bullish? Well, because it's
not as big as other bars. So let's say,

1728
02:15:42,830 --> 02:15:44,390
look at bar number 20.

1729
02:15:44,860 --> 02:15:46,440
Look at bar number 18.

1730
02:15:46,660 --> 02:15:48,280
Look at bar number 13.

1731
02:15:48,640 --> 02:15:53,620
You know, those are the bars in the same
area. They are at the same price level.

1732
02:15:54,080 --> 02:15:58,540
So 24 is definitely the smallest out of
them all.

1733
02:15:59,320 --> 02:16:04,620
But then there is a very interesting,
significant development here with the

1734
02:16:04,620 --> 02:16:05,620
volume signature.

1735
02:16:05,680 --> 02:16:12,080
Look at how the effort is so low, and
yet we are...

1736
02:16:12,400 --> 02:16:16,420
capable of producing almost the same
result as a 24.

1737
02:16:18,200 --> 02:16:24,600
again effort on bar number 24 is

1738
02:16:24,600 --> 02:16:31,560
the lowest among all of these bars and
let me just highlight

1739
02:16:31,560 --> 02:16:38,400
them all so that you would visually see
them better okay so all

1740
02:16:38,400 --> 02:16:43,590
of these bars And then we're seeing how
the effort is the lowest, yet

1741
02:16:43,590 --> 02:16:49,610
result is almost the same

1742
02:16:49,610 --> 02:16:55,809
as bar number 23.

1743
02:16:56,530 --> 02:17:00,110
So 23 is a good analog bar for us.

1744
02:17:01,350 --> 02:17:03,290
So, Rony, what does that suggest?

1745
02:17:04,010 --> 02:17:08,209
You know, effort is the lowest and
result is almost the same.

1746
02:17:09,780 --> 02:17:16,540
Bullish. Bullish, and then how else
would we call this type of ability

1747
02:17:16,540 --> 02:17:21,080
of the price to travel on diminishing
effort in the direction of the bias?

1748
02:17:22,100 --> 02:17:23,139
Ease of movement.

1749
02:17:23,400 --> 02:17:25,400
Ease of movement, absolutely, yeah.

1750
02:17:25,660 --> 02:17:32,280
So it's an ease of movement, and ease of
movement confirms the bullish

1751
02:17:32,280 --> 02:17:33,379
bias.

1752
02:17:34,520 --> 02:17:35,840
Okay, great.

1753
02:17:36,240 --> 02:17:37,940
So then next bar.

1754
02:17:38,379 --> 02:17:39,799
Bar number 25.

1755
02:17:40,180 --> 02:17:45,240
So this is an interesting bar. We talked
about the resistance cluster.

1756
02:17:45,639 --> 02:17:52,160
So let's talk about the effort for bar
number

1757
02:17:52,160 --> 02:17:53,160
25.

1758
02:17:55,280 --> 02:18:00,400
Up. Volume is almost three times higher
than bar 24.

1759
02:18:01,580 --> 02:18:06,740
Yes. And, you know, the BART24 was kind
of like average bullish suggested to

1760
02:18:06,740 --> 02:18:07,740
move to the upside.

1761
02:18:08,059 --> 02:18:11,400
That move suggested that we're going to
retest the resistance.

1762
02:18:13,180 --> 02:18:19,139
And by the way, the next question I want
you to think about this as we're

1763
02:18:19,139 --> 02:18:20,320
talking about something else.

1764
02:18:21,199 --> 02:18:26,600
Bar number 24 suggested not only that
we're going to test the resistance, but

1765
02:18:26,600 --> 02:18:30,180
might actually overcome it. So the
question is why?

1766
02:18:30,400 --> 02:18:32,320
So think about that for a second.

1767
02:18:32,580 --> 02:18:39,400
But meanwhile, let's compare the effort
of bar number 24 to the

1768
02:18:39,400 --> 02:18:44,200
analog efforts of the bars that were in
the same position. So what would be the

1769
02:18:44,200 --> 02:18:46,000
analog bar for bar number 25?

1770
02:18:48,869 --> 02:18:55,790
19. 19. Why 19 is the bar with the same
intention?

1771
02:19:00,930 --> 02:19:07,750
Was that a question? Yes. Why is bar 19
a bar

1772
02:19:07,750 --> 02:19:10,049
with the same intention as bar number
25?

1773
02:19:13,230 --> 02:19:17,570
try to overcome the resistance from bar
14?

1774
02:19:17,770 --> 02:19:22,549
Yeah, it's the same price action. We are
trying to commit above the resistance,

1775
02:19:22,990 --> 02:19:28,990
therefore suggesting that we could
overcome the supply that is present at

1776
02:19:28,990 --> 02:19:32,830
horizontal level of the bar 13, 14.

1777
02:19:33,110 --> 02:19:35,110
So this cluster right here.

1778
02:19:35,350 --> 02:19:36,629
So okay, great.

1779
02:19:36,910 --> 02:19:42,110
So effort at bar number 25 compared to
the

1780
02:19:43,180 --> 02:19:49,580
compared to the effort at bar number 19,
has done what?

1781
02:19:50,300 --> 02:19:51,300
Slightly lower.

1782
02:19:51,960 --> 02:19:57,380
I would say that somewhat significantly
lower. Well, I mean like significantly

1783
02:19:57,380 --> 02:20:00,620
lower by maybe 30 % or so, right?

1784
02:20:00,860 --> 02:20:05,720
So minus 30%. So that's probably a
considerable drop. So we could say that

1785
02:20:05,720 --> 02:20:10,400
24 is definitely lower.

1786
02:20:11,070 --> 02:20:17,850
Then effort at 25 is lower than effort
at 19. And then the result at

1787
02:20:17,850 --> 02:20:21,730
25 relative to the result at 19 is?

1788
02:20:22,490 --> 02:20:23,750
Much higher spread.

1789
02:20:24,710 --> 02:20:28,950
Much better, right? So let's go through
this.

1790
02:20:29,610 --> 02:20:34,950
Spread to the upside is better,
increased.

1791
02:20:36,430 --> 02:20:38,010
Definitely better. Okay.

1792
02:20:41,679 --> 02:20:43,520
Close relative to the spread.

1793
02:20:45,640 --> 02:20:48,140
Slightly above half of the range.

1794
02:20:48,700 --> 02:20:54,220
And, you know, we might end up kind of
like in the same type of percentile,

1795
02:20:54,220 --> 02:21:00,860
right? So on both bars, we are above one
half, I would say, and we're probably

1796
02:21:00,860 --> 02:21:04,840
percentile the same. So let's just put
it the same. Okay, close to close?

1797
02:21:07,700 --> 02:21:08,700
Much higher.

1798
02:21:09,020 --> 02:21:13,260
Yeah, so we are looking at the
progression from one close to another,

1799
02:21:13,260 --> 02:21:14,260
close to another.

1800
02:21:14,520 --> 02:21:17,660
Definitely much better for bond number
25.

1801
02:21:18,240 --> 02:21:20,240
Okay, and then intention.

1802
02:21:21,720 --> 02:21:24,980
And here we're going to be doing two
things.

1803
02:21:25,220 --> 02:21:30,940
So the first is the intention. Has it
been fulfilled for bond number 25?

1804
02:21:32,460 --> 02:21:36,500
No. No. Now the second question that I'm
going to ask you.

1805
02:21:37,870 --> 02:21:44,130
In terms of the result for the intention
that we have had, is bar number

1806
02:21:44,130 --> 02:21:51,070
25 has failed on the

1807
02:21:51,070 --> 02:21:56,890
intention, you know, how would I phrase
it? Is it the better, is it the closer

1808
02:21:56,890 --> 02:22:02,550
to the success to fulfill this intention
on bar number 25

1809
02:22:02,550 --> 02:22:04,950
than on bar number 19?

1810
02:22:06,220 --> 02:22:10,180
Yes, it's closing right at the
resistance line. Yeah.

1811
02:22:10,740 --> 02:22:12,000
It's a higher spread.

1812
02:22:12,320 --> 02:22:16,920
Let me kind of ask you in a different
way so that everybody would understand

1813
02:22:16,920 --> 02:22:17,920
broken English here.

1814
02:22:18,940 --> 02:22:24,760
We want to, because the intention is the
same, we want to understand what is the

1815
02:22:24,760 --> 02:22:25,760
result.

1816
02:22:26,080 --> 02:22:28,000
How close to the...

1817
02:22:28,840 --> 02:22:33,380
final implementation of this intention
have we come on bar number 25.

1818
02:22:33,600 --> 02:22:38,700
And it seems like the close is at least
on the first resistance level.

1819
02:22:39,720 --> 02:22:42,600
So it's much better than the close of
bar number 19.

1820
02:22:43,280 --> 02:22:46,640
Also, what can we say about the actual
tail?

1821
02:22:47,020 --> 02:22:53,140
On bar number 19, the tail does not
touch the highest resistance. On bar

1822
02:22:53,140 --> 02:22:56,880
25, not only it touches, it actually
overcomes it.

1823
02:22:57,320 --> 02:23:02,260
And then on the intraday level, tries to
commit above and to stay there.

1824
02:23:02,720 --> 02:23:05,480
And then it fails back into the trading
range.

1825
02:23:05,700 --> 02:23:12,160
So bar number 25 is behaving better on
the intention

1826
02:23:12,160 --> 02:23:13,960
than bar number 19.

1827
02:23:15,340 --> 02:23:20,280
So we're seeing that we have a lot of
bullish indications for bar number 25.

1828
02:23:21,460 --> 02:23:22,680
Spread is better.

1829
02:23:23,960 --> 02:23:25,520
Close to close is better.

1830
02:23:26,440 --> 02:23:29,940
And then intention -wise, we almost were
there.

1831
02:23:31,520 --> 02:23:37,240
So looking at all of this, Ronnie, is
bar number 25

1832
02:23:37,240 --> 02:23:39,840
more bullish than bar 19?

1833
02:23:41,000 --> 02:23:42,000
Yes.

1834
02:23:42,720 --> 02:23:44,720
Okay, more bullish.

1835
02:23:45,860 --> 02:23:49,900
And this means what relative to the
whole structure?

1836
02:23:50,500 --> 02:23:56,420
Because if 19 was an attempt to overcome
the resistance and 25 is better, doing

1837
02:23:56,420 --> 02:24:00,000
better than that, then what does it mean
for the breakout?

1838
02:24:01,940 --> 02:24:04,220
It's closer.

1839
02:24:04,540 --> 02:24:09,320
It's closer, except when you're now,
right? So it might be, you know,

1840
02:24:09,320 --> 02:24:11,580
supply is coming in, it's less.

1841
02:24:12,820 --> 02:24:17,260
And for the first time, we were able to
overcome the resistance, which is a big

1842
02:24:17,260 --> 02:24:22,920
deal. So if we are, you know, going to
have a true breakout, it's very close.

1843
02:24:23,180 --> 02:24:24,260
So we are...

1844
02:24:24,600 --> 02:24:29,440
probably thinking that our definition of
phase C is actually correct because

1845
02:24:29,440 --> 02:24:34,740
phase C defines the timing for us of
when the price is gonna start leaving

1846
02:24:34,740 --> 02:24:38,680
trading range first, going through the
whole trading range and above the

1847
02:24:38,680 --> 02:24:40,680
resistance. Okay, great.

1848
02:24:41,200 --> 02:24:46,840
Well, we know that the, by the way,
guys, one of the ways to look at the

1849
02:24:46,840 --> 02:24:52,160
commitment on bond number 25, so I'm
looking at this cluster right here.

1850
02:24:52,700 --> 02:24:57,620
And we're seeing how the price is, the
close is definitely below that

1851
02:24:57,620 --> 02:25:04,580
level. But we also can have a sloping
down resistance based on

1852
02:25:04,580 --> 02:25:11,580
more of the apex action structure,
something like this.

1853
02:25:11,860 --> 02:25:17,340
And then we see how there is a
commitment to the upside just based on

1854
02:25:17,340 --> 02:25:20,720
then look, this is definitely this apex
structure.

1855
02:25:22,120 --> 02:25:23,560
that we've mentioned a lot.

1856
02:25:24,120 --> 02:25:29,820
Okay, let's talk about bar number 26.

1857
02:25:31,260 --> 02:25:37,980
This is the bar, Ronnie, that produces a
lot of questions from students.

1858
02:25:38,940 --> 02:25:45,780
This is the second highest volume
signature on the down bar

1859
02:25:45,780 --> 02:25:50,760
so far. The previous one was at bar
number 14.

1860
02:25:52,520 --> 02:25:57,520
So the biggest question that I get
usually goes like this.

1861
02:25:58,680 --> 02:26:05,460
Roman, I got into the position at 16 and
22, and then I saw bar number

1862
02:26:05,460 --> 02:26:12,340
26. Bar number 26 has the volume
increase, or

1863
02:26:12,340 --> 02:26:19,020
rather than the volume increase, had
supply increase relative to the previous

1864
02:26:19,020 --> 02:26:20,360
point of the supply.

1865
02:26:21,050 --> 02:26:26,310
that we've discussed before there is
only one bar that is higher as a down

1866
02:26:26,310 --> 02:26:31,950
so i sold this position right there
because i thought that this is the

1867
02:26:31,950 --> 02:26:38,070
increase at the level of the resistance
and uh therefore a distribution is going

1868
02:26:38,070 --> 02:26:43,930
to take place ronnie what is wrong with
that thinking

1869
02:26:43,930 --> 02:26:47,090
um

1870
02:26:48,520 --> 02:26:54,440
Looks like the bar maybe was trying to
get lower than the high of about 23.

1871
02:26:55,940 --> 02:26:57,220
Okay, yes.

1872
02:26:57,840 --> 02:27:03,400
Another level here is the low of bar
number 25 because that's the previous

1873
02:27:03,400 --> 02:27:07,680
significant bar to the upside, right? So
that's where we have the commitment.

1874
02:27:08,080 --> 02:27:12,780
And the close is not committing below
any of these two levels.

1875
02:27:13,020 --> 02:27:14,280
There is an attempt.

1876
02:27:14,920 --> 02:27:19,680
It goes in between, kind of like goes to
one half of this area, and then it

1877
02:27:19,680 --> 02:27:26,280
springs up again and comes back above
the level of bar number 23.

1878
02:27:27,180 --> 02:27:31,720
So what does that suggest on such
emergence of the supply, Ronnie?

1879
02:27:32,860 --> 02:27:34,060
Demand is coming in.

1880
02:27:34,320 --> 02:27:36,120
Yeah, so there is some demand.

1881
02:27:36,440 --> 02:27:41,200
Result to the downside is diminishing.

1882
02:27:41,520 --> 02:27:46,120
The intention is not... fulfilled at
all.

1883
02:27:46,860 --> 02:27:51,600
We did not commit below the levels that
we wanted.

1884
02:27:52,460 --> 02:27:59,340
So therefore, we are thinking, why is it
that we are not, as

1885
02:27:59,340 --> 02:28:03,300
Eric is saying here, in sync between the
effort and the result? Well, because

1886
02:28:03,300 --> 02:28:09,520
there is an opposing force, which is
demand, increasing demand, that comes in

1887
02:28:09,520 --> 02:28:12,440
this point, and all of this supply is
being observed.

1888
02:28:13,800 --> 02:28:18,780
Now, think of this concept in a
different way.

1889
02:28:19,660 --> 02:28:26,460
Think of this concept as the value zone
where institutions are buying, right?

1890
02:28:26,500 --> 02:28:31,120
So even though the weak hands,
institutional hands, might be buying on

1891
02:28:31,120 --> 02:28:37,740
number 13, but now bar number 13 and bar
number 14 define that value zone

1892
02:28:37,740 --> 02:28:42,840
for us, for this particular structure.

1893
02:28:43,420 --> 02:28:49,760
And anything above point number 14 will
be an overbought condition,

1894
02:28:50,020 --> 02:28:54,180
and therefore professionals here are
going to

1895
02:28:54,180 --> 02:29:01,100
conduct the mean reversion trade because
in the overbought condition,

1896
02:29:01,280 --> 02:29:05,680
they would be thinking that there's
going to be a reversion to a mean, and

1897
02:29:05,680 --> 02:29:07,580
therefore there's going to be some kind
of trade.

1898
02:29:07,780 --> 02:29:11,440
They've done this trade at point number
19 already.

1899
02:29:12,140 --> 02:29:14,880
why wouldn't it work at 0 .25?

1900
02:29:15,200 --> 02:29:20,600
So that supply that comes in is that
professional mean reversion trade.

1901
02:29:21,600 --> 02:29:23,680
And that's why supply increases.

1902
02:29:24,200 --> 02:29:30,860
Now, as the price goes down, look how it
goes into

1903
02:29:30,860 --> 02:29:37,560
the institutional value zone, just
because the

1904
02:29:37,560 --> 02:29:43,300
bias is to the upside. And anything in
the zone, institutions will be buying.

1905
02:29:44,060 --> 02:29:49,360
And they are buying, you know,
institutions were rotationally buying on

1906
02:29:49,360 --> 02:29:50,440
number 13, 14.

1907
02:29:51,060 --> 02:29:56,400
Those weekends that we're selling,
Composite Man was picking up on the

1908
02:29:56,400 --> 02:29:57,940
liquidity, a lot of the stocks.

1909
02:29:58,260 --> 02:30:03,140
Then there was, so let's just do this.

1910
02:30:03,980 --> 02:30:08,340
CEO rotationally, rotation.

1911
02:30:10,760 --> 02:30:17,680
rotational accumulation and now it's at
the high level this

1912
02:30:17,680 --> 02:30:23,620
is institutional trend followers are
trying to get in into this position and

1913
02:30:23,620 --> 02:30:30,520
they're coming in heavy and then you
know a

1914
02:30:30,520 --> 02:30:36,310
professional such as selling into this
as they sold into this area. So

1915
02:30:36,310 --> 02:30:40,030
professionals are doing mean reversion
trade in all of the three places.

1916
02:30:40,650 --> 02:30:46,490
And look at how the first time the mean
reversion trade produced the largest

1917
02:30:46,490 --> 02:30:52,410
reaction, then a smaller reaction, and
then even smaller reaction.

1918
02:30:52,650 --> 02:30:57,790
And that's on the background of

1919
02:30:57,790 --> 02:31:01,590
somewhat diminishing effort.

1920
02:31:02,410 --> 02:31:04,830
and the result is diminishing.

1921
02:31:05,230 --> 02:31:07,030
So what is going on?

1922
02:31:07,850 --> 02:31:14,490
Well, they are absorbing the shares at
this level, then at this level, and then

1923
02:31:14,490 --> 02:31:15,970
at a higher level.

1924
02:31:16,210 --> 02:31:23,010
By itself, the absorption at a

1925
02:31:23,010 --> 02:31:27,770
higher level suggests what, Ronnie?

1926
02:31:34,600 --> 02:31:35,600
Roni, are you there?

1927
02:31:36,220 --> 02:31:40,480
Yep. Yeah. So absorption at the higher
level now suggests what?

1928
02:31:42,900 --> 02:31:43,900
Higher demand?

1929
02:31:45,640 --> 02:31:50,320
Not necessarily higher demand. Demand
might be actually lower. I mean, the

1930
02:31:50,320 --> 02:31:53,820
highest demand was somewhere here at the
13, 14.

1931
02:31:54,700 --> 02:31:55,700
Sorry,

1932
02:31:56,340 --> 02:31:57,500
the value zone has changed.

1933
02:31:59,040 --> 02:32:02,080
Yeah. So the value zone is changing.
That's number one.

1934
02:32:03,040 --> 02:32:08,820
Institutions are seeing value at higher
price.

1935
02:32:10,400 --> 02:32:15,980
This suggests a confirmation of up bias

1936
02:32:15,980 --> 02:32:22,200
and suggests that the move, the rally,

1937
02:32:22,480 --> 02:32:25,240
is underway.

1938
02:32:25,520 --> 02:32:31,620
And the breakout is going to start right
now.

1939
02:32:34,890 --> 02:32:35,930
And here we go.

1940
02:32:36,290 --> 02:32:41,750
We are observing the supply that is
emerging at the higher level, and it's

1941
02:32:41,750 --> 02:32:42,790
almost like a staircase.

1942
02:32:43,130 --> 02:32:48,310
You kind of have to observe the supply
at different price levels, right? So

1943
02:32:48,310 --> 02:32:53,210
observing the supply somewhere here,
here, and then we're observing at the

1944
02:32:53,210 --> 02:32:54,089
higher level.

1945
02:32:54,090 --> 02:32:59,950
Once the absorption has been completed
at the higher level, now we could freely

1946
02:32:59,950 --> 02:33:01,190
move to the upside.

1947
02:33:01,510 --> 02:33:04,070
And now the price is going to go up.

1948
02:33:04,720 --> 02:33:11,540
in a much better, more kind of like
controlled way where supply is not going

1949
02:33:11,540 --> 02:33:16,020
be a problem anymore. Why? Well, because
all of the supply that has been at this

1950
02:33:16,020 --> 02:33:22,360
level has been observed and all of the
price levels have been tested.

1951
02:33:23,280 --> 02:33:24,280
Okay, great.

1952
02:33:27,660 --> 02:33:29,300
Let's see what time we have.

1953
02:33:30,510 --> 02:33:32,390
So let's conclude this whole thing.

1954
02:33:32,630 --> 02:33:34,010
Rony, thank you so much.

1955
02:33:35,030 --> 02:33:36,030
You're welcome.

1956
02:33:36,730 --> 02:33:43,670
All right. Now let's go quickly say yes
again because I don't remember who

1957
02:33:43,670 --> 02:33:49,430
said yes to volunteer, and we're just
going to conclude this. While you're

1958
02:33:49,430 --> 02:33:55,610
thinking about this, guys, let me just
go to the next bar, number 27.

1959
02:33:58,040 --> 02:34:00,160
Here's that volume signature right here.

1960
02:34:01,560 --> 02:34:05,980
So here we are thinking about comparing
it to 25.

1961
02:34:06,340 --> 02:34:09,940
And even though the spread is
diminishing, but look at the close.

1962
02:34:10,160 --> 02:34:16,740
It's much better. It's actually the
highest close so far in this trading

1963
02:34:16,960 --> 02:34:20,760
We had the close at 13, 19, then 25.

1964
02:34:20,980 --> 02:34:26,940
So we have the progression of the closes
at the point of the resistance.

1965
02:34:27,660 --> 02:34:33,880
that suggests that after 25 and 27,
we're probably going to go up and we're

1966
02:34:33,880 --> 02:34:37,240
going to have this continuation to the
upside.

1967
02:34:37,880 --> 02:34:44,080
It also happens on the smaller volume
signature, on dimension volume

1968
02:34:44,380 --> 02:34:46,600
So a much better result

1969
02:34:46,600 --> 02:34:52,900
on

1970
02:34:56,170 --> 02:35:02,810
Lower effort suggests not just bullish

1971
02:35:02,810 --> 02:35:09,770
picture, but also suggests ease of
movement. And ease of movement starts to

1972
02:35:09,770 --> 02:35:13,270
appear when supply is poor.

1973
02:35:14,930 --> 02:35:20,070
And if supply is poor, then the rally is
happening now.

1974
02:35:23,050 --> 02:35:27,250
Okay, and we'll talk about, you know,
how we would trade about this maybe

1975
02:35:27,250 --> 02:35:32,950
on, maybe next time. But 27 confirms
that we're about to go up, that we're

1976
02:35:32,950 --> 02:35:36,970
likely going to overcome 25. We do on
bar number 28.

1977
02:35:37,290 --> 02:35:42,610
Now, 28 has very interesting
characteristics because the volume has

1978
02:35:44,370 --> 02:35:47,250
And that suggests that that supply has
increased.

1979
02:35:47,730 --> 02:35:50,710
Also, we see that slightly the spread.

1980
02:35:52,110 --> 02:35:55,530
has diminished ever slightly relative to
27.

1981
02:35:57,590 --> 02:35:58,970
What does that suggest?

1982
02:35:59,370 --> 02:36:04,390
Well, that suggests that on the increase
in effort signature and emergent supply

1983
02:36:04,390 --> 02:36:09,810
and diminishing result, we're going to
have some kind of short -term reaction.

1984
02:36:11,190 --> 02:36:15,830
This reaction, we are not expecting that
there's going to be a very big

1985
02:36:15,830 --> 02:36:19,610
reaction. We're expecting that supply
signature is going to be lower than on

1986
02:36:19,610 --> 02:36:20,610
number 26.

1987
02:36:21,040 --> 02:36:26,120
just because supply has been observed in
this area and supply is diminishing.

1988
02:36:26,280 --> 02:36:31,360
We're also expecting that maybe a
reaction by itself is not going to be as

1989
02:36:31,580 --> 02:36:38,020
Well, it was definitely probably in line
with what we've seen after the 25,

1990
02:36:38,180 --> 02:36:41,180
but slightly less.

1991
02:36:42,340 --> 02:36:49,160
So 28 to 29 is slightly or equal to

1992
02:36:49,160 --> 02:36:50,160
25.

1993
02:36:51,570 --> 02:36:57,710
And what else we could say is that
sometimes look at the

1994
02:36:57,710 --> 02:37:04,550
reaction through the closes, right? So
from the top

1995
02:37:04,550 --> 02:37:07,150
to the lowest close right here.

1996
02:37:07,790 --> 02:37:14,370
From the top to the lowest close right
here. So that shows you the commitment

1997
02:37:14,370 --> 02:37:18,230
of professionals as to where they're
going to...

1998
02:37:18,680 --> 02:37:24,400
you know stop selling and um the levels
of where the buying the buying is going

1999
02:37:24,400 --> 02:37:29,580
to bring it on the down bars so much
better picture plus we're thinking that

2000
02:37:29,580 --> 02:37:36,500
okay this is phase c we've just
committed to the upside minor sign of

2001
02:37:36,500 --> 02:37:42,820
major sign of strength and then the
backing up action we are concluding

2002
02:37:42,820 --> 02:37:47,860
here and now we're gonna go into phase e
where we're gonna um

2003
02:37:48,940 --> 02:37:55,840
travel more freely. And actually, the
final absorption of the

2004
02:37:55,840 --> 02:38:01,300
supply, and we see how supply has
diminished, this suggests the timing by

2005
02:38:01,300 --> 02:38:02,300
itself.

2006
02:38:02,720 --> 02:38:04,400
Timing for what?

2007
02:38:04,760 --> 02:38:10,840
Timing for up move without

2008
02:38:10,840 --> 02:38:12,860
a lot of supply.

2009
02:38:13,800 --> 02:38:19,980
And if that's the case, then we could be
expecting that the character with which

2010
02:38:19,980 --> 02:38:24,460
the price is going to move, just because
supply has been exhausted, is going to

2011
02:38:24,460 --> 02:38:25,540
be acceleration.

2012
02:38:30,440 --> 02:38:34,120
This means that we're going to have the
spread increase.

2013
02:38:35,140 --> 02:38:37,420
We're going to have momentum increase.

2014
02:38:37,900 --> 02:38:39,780
We're going to have velocity increase.

2015
02:38:40,810 --> 02:38:44,750
and we're going to probably have the
volume increase as well.

2016
02:38:45,110 --> 02:38:48,590
Why? Why would the volume signature
increase?

2017
02:38:49,170 --> 02:38:54,970
Well, again, we are coming out of the
formation, so the weak hands are going

2018
02:38:54,970 --> 02:38:56,750
become very excited.

2019
02:38:57,870 --> 02:38:58,870
Oh, boy.

2020
02:39:00,350 --> 02:39:05,070
If the weak hands are excited, there are
a couple of things that we should be

2021
02:39:05,070 --> 02:39:09,610
thinking here. If weak hands are excited
and they are providing liquidity,

2022
02:39:10,540 --> 02:39:13,900
then strong hands could come and sell.

2023
02:39:14,700 --> 02:39:20,100
And usually this type of action is going
to be associated with what? With the

2024
02:39:20,100 --> 02:39:21,100
climactic run.

2025
02:39:24,360 --> 02:39:30,280
I do not know what is going to happen at
this point if I don't look at the chart

2026
02:39:30,280 --> 02:39:32,020
the way how we look here.

2027
02:39:32,420 --> 02:39:37,900
But I could deduct as to what possibly
could happen.

2028
02:39:38,380 --> 02:39:42,320
what possible character we're going to
have as the price moves up.

2029
02:39:42,760 --> 02:39:46,180
And here we go. We're definitely doing
exactly that.

2030
02:39:46,880 --> 02:39:52,400
Supply is diminishing in this area. We
are above the area of the resistance

2031
02:39:52,400 --> 02:39:56,200
after the major sign of strength on the
backing up action.

2032
02:39:56,580 --> 02:39:59,620
Now there is no resistance. There is no
supply.

2033
02:40:00,020 --> 02:40:06,580
So the next thing that's going to happen
is momentum is going to come in heavy.

2034
02:40:07,240 --> 02:40:10,220
And that's going to increase the
velocity of the price to the upside.

2035
02:40:10,840 --> 02:40:17,760
And that's going to be on the background
of weak hands buying at this point of

2036
02:40:17,760 --> 02:40:24,660
time. Usually weak hands buying on the
point of excitement in the uptrend,

2037
02:40:24,660 --> 02:40:29,020
is going to be defined as the first
point of excitement, most likely on the

2038
02:40:29,020 --> 02:40:30,080
climactic action.

2039
02:40:31,080 --> 02:40:36,680
And always when weak hands are buying on
that first point of excitement, That

2040
02:40:36,680 --> 02:40:40,180
will define the value zone for weekends.

2041
02:40:42,180 --> 02:40:49,160
This is where they will be always
biased. They will be thinking about

2042
02:40:49,160 --> 02:40:52,760
here, and then when the price gives them
the value, they're going to buy again.

2043
02:40:53,000 --> 02:40:55,160
They're going to buy again, something
like that.

2044
02:40:56,600 --> 02:41:02,320
Okay, so 31 is interesting because

2045
02:41:02,320 --> 02:41:04,860
of the volume signature.

2046
02:41:05,360 --> 02:41:12,300
it's huge it's the largest volume
signature than we've seen um uh from

2047
02:41:12,300 --> 02:41:18,500
bars and this is what one two three four
um

2048
02:41:18,500 --> 02:41:25,080
uh out of the five areas five volume

2049
02:41:25,080 --> 02:41:31,640
signatures this is the highest and
obviously a very bullish bar again

2050
02:41:31,640 --> 02:41:38,520
this is probably the same of today's
class and i want to see this in

2051
02:41:38,520 --> 02:41:44,280
your notes how does this bar bar number
31 look to you

2052
02:41:44,280 --> 02:41:51,100
doesn't it look so bullish big spread
new

2053
02:41:51,100 --> 02:41:57,120
high uptrend conventional t

2054
02:41:57,120 --> 02:42:02,300
volume increase in the direction of the
bias confirms that bias

2055
02:42:03,340 --> 02:42:05,060
And yet, look what happens next.

2056
02:42:11,440 --> 02:42:15,040
I want you to think about this over this
week.

2057
02:42:16,900 --> 02:42:22,060
And think about why we're doing this
work on volume and spread analysis.

2058
02:42:23,620 --> 02:42:29,960
What looks so bullish is hiding a
secret, a Trojan

2059
02:42:29,960 --> 02:42:31,060
horse.

2060
02:42:33,230 --> 02:42:39,230
It's hiding the presence of
institutional selling.

2061
02:42:41,010 --> 02:42:46,270
And we only know this because the volume
increase, the volume spike,

2062
02:42:46,430 --> 02:42:52,590
suggests that in the direction of the
bias, the force is increasing.

2063
02:42:53,330 --> 02:42:59,710
But so is the opposite force just
because of how large this volume

2064
02:43:00,750 --> 02:43:04,130
If all of this would be demand, what
would happen?

2065
02:43:04,350 --> 02:43:05,830
We would go to the moon here.

2066
02:43:07,210 --> 02:43:09,550
Because there would be fewer sellers.

2067
02:43:11,670 --> 02:43:17,550
And the buyers would dominate in a very
extreme way.

2068
02:43:18,610 --> 02:43:22,910
So we're not doing that. We're not going
to the moon here. Yes, the move is

2069
02:43:22,910 --> 02:43:24,370
quick. The move is big.

2070
02:43:25,250 --> 02:43:29,170
But it doesn't mean that it's all
demand.

2071
02:43:29,960 --> 02:43:33,980
There is some selling that is happening,
and this is an institutional signature

2072
02:43:33,980 --> 02:43:40,320
here. If this selling is emerging at
this level, institutional selling, that

2073
02:43:40,420 --> 02:43:46,360
then we could be expecting a stop in
action, not necessarily right on that

2074
02:43:46,460 --> 02:43:48,500
but in the area, reversal.

2075
02:43:49,720 --> 02:43:54,240
And with that, a possible change of
character, which could lead to a trading

2076
02:43:54,240 --> 02:43:55,240
range.

2077
02:43:55,700 --> 02:44:00,330
And in the trading range, we will have
to go again through the bias analysis.

2078
02:44:01,750 --> 02:44:06,990
But at least we are thinking that if we
are in a trade, we are somewhere close

2079
02:44:06,990 --> 02:44:10,030
to the intermediate stop in action.

2080
02:44:12,070 --> 02:44:18,870
And bar number 32 starts to confirm that
because the effort of bar number 32,

2081
02:44:18,970 --> 02:44:25,870
it's still a very high effort looking at
all of the bars that we've seen before.

2082
02:44:26,430 --> 02:44:32,330
So we probably would be thinking that
the effort on bar 32, even though it's

2083
02:44:32,330 --> 02:44:39,210
diminishing relative to bar number 31,
but we're also seeing that the

2084
02:44:39,210 --> 02:44:43,170
result at 32 is much less than at 31.

2085
02:44:44,610 --> 02:44:49,950
How do we see this? Well, the spread is
diminishing. The close -to -close is

2086
02:44:49,950 --> 02:44:52,010
much more mediocre than at 31.

2087
02:44:53,770 --> 02:44:57,850
The intention was committed above. We
did this, but marginally.

2088
02:44:58,190 --> 02:45:01,650
Not a lot of clothes above the level of
the resistance.

2089
02:45:02,210 --> 02:45:08,750
So that suggests some kind of weakness
and suggests some kind of

2090
02:45:08,750 --> 02:45:11,870
bearishness that might come. So suggest
a reaction.

2091
02:45:12,390 --> 02:45:17,810
So with the reaction in the next class,
and I'm going to stop here,

2092
02:45:18,470 --> 02:45:22,230
it suggests on the reaction.

2093
02:45:22,750 --> 02:45:27,570
We need to make sure that we judge the
character of the reaction and we

2094
02:45:27,570 --> 02:45:34,110
understand at least we could speculate
what kind of buys we're going to have

2095
02:45:34,110 --> 02:45:35,850
this trading range and so on and so
forth.

2096
02:45:36,850 --> 02:45:43,330
Bar number 33 confirms that supply is
increasing,

2097
02:45:43,750 --> 02:45:45,990
confirms that we're going to have a
reaction.

2098
02:45:46,870 --> 02:45:53,250
And at this point, If you are a long
-term investor, then you're thinking

2099
02:45:53,250 --> 02:45:58,210
about maybe hedging.

2100
02:46:00,270 --> 02:46:04,830
If you're a short -term trader, then
you're just out of the position.

2101
02:46:05,510 --> 02:46:11,950
That's it. You might be also originating
some short positions for short -term

2102
02:46:11,950 --> 02:46:17,810
trades because your target is going to
be somewhere at the bottom.

2103
02:46:18,140 --> 02:46:24,880
of this uh barnabas 31 all right guys so
um let's stop

2104
02:46:24,880 --> 02:46:30,040
here for today um let's review the
homework so the homework

2105
02:46:30,040 --> 02:46:36,880
is gonna be of two parts watch

2106
02:46:36,880 --> 02:46:43,400
this video again and secondly i want to
receive

2107
02:46:43,400 --> 02:46:45,920
your exercise notes

2108
02:46:49,840 --> 02:46:52,080
So this is what we're looking for.

2109
02:46:53,460 --> 02:46:58,160
And if you have time, be serious about
this assignment.

2110
02:46:58,620 --> 02:47:04,820
I want you to get into it. I want you to
stop the recording

2111
02:47:04,820 --> 02:47:08,840
and put those notes in.

2112
02:47:09,580 --> 02:47:13,120
Go through the analysis again. It's
going to be extremely helpful.

2113
02:47:13,460 --> 02:47:15,280
I know it's really tedious.

2114
02:47:15,580 --> 02:47:16,580
I know it.

2115
02:47:17,090 --> 02:47:23,990
You know, it's kind of like the thing
that in order for you to gain a momentum

2116
02:47:23,990 --> 02:47:29,230
with your analysis, you have to be
extremely slow at the beginning because

2117
02:47:29,230 --> 02:47:35,330
really, really have to understand it and
see the concepts on the chart.

2118
02:47:37,310 --> 02:47:38,690
Okay, so that's homework.

2119
02:47:39,630 --> 02:47:40,630
What else?

2120
02:47:41,890 --> 02:47:45,010
What else I wanted to say? Oh, yeah,
some comments and questions.

2121
02:47:58,600 --> 02:47:59,600
Okay.

2122
02:48:10,700 --> 02:48:12,400
Okay, so from Nailash.

2123
02:48:12,960 --> 02:48:15,160
Okay, bar number 18.

2124
02:48:16,300 --> 02:48:20,140
And we went through this, but let's just
confirm this. Short -term bullish.

2125
02:48:21,160 --> 02:48:22,160
Yes.

2126
02:48:22,580 --> 02:48:26,500
There's still a lot of momentum that's
going to carry us into the cluster.

2127
02:48:27,360 --> 02:48:28,360
And then,

2128
02:48:31,060 --> 02:48:35,540
short -term bullish, long -term bearish.
Not necessarily long -term bearish,

2129
02:48:35,560 --> 02:48:37,840
right? Because we're thinking, what is
the bias here?

2130
02:48:38,080 --> 02:48:45,080
So the long -term bias is going to be
related to the whole structure, right?

2131
02:48:45,080 --> 02:48:46,120
that's why long -term.

2132
02:48:46,400 --> 02:48:50,540
The short -term is related more to the
swings.

2133
02:48:50,980 --> 02:48:55,720
So when we say that supply is coming in
here, we know that the short -term bias

2134
02:48:55,720 --> 02:48:57,880
is going to be bearish.

2135
02:49:00,110 --> 02:49:04,750
And then the long -term bias that
relates to the whole structure is still

2136
02:49:04,750 --> 02:49:11,590
bullish because we're thinking that this
was bullish, this was bullish, and then

2137
02:49:11,590 --> 02:49:14,290
a possible next reaction could be
bullish.

2138
02:49:20,390 --> 02:49:24,010
Would we add or enter position on bar
number 27?

2139
02:49:24,930 --> 02:49:27,990
And this question comes also from LH.
Yeah.

2140
02:49:29,050 --> 02:49:34,350
Yeah, this is a good place to initiate
the position. So our places to initiate

2141
02:49:34,350 --> 02:49:39,650
the positions are going to be bar number
23, 24, 26,

2142
02:49:40,390 --> 02:49:41,650
27.

2143
02:49:44,730 --> 02:49:46,730
The bar is 29, 30.

2144
02:49:47,710 --> 02:49:49,150
And that's about it.

2145
02:49:49,650 --> 02:49:53,070
So quite a few spots here where we could
open the position.

2146
02:49:58,640 --> 02:50:05,260
Okay, on a reaction such as 25 and 26,
compared

2147
02:50:05,260 --> 02:50:11,340
to 28 to the following low, could we
conclude similar result,

2148
02:50:11,560 --> 02:50:16,940
but actually greater volume since the
volume of the two bars is greater than

2149
02:50:16,940 --> 02:50:22,920
volume than the single bar from L? So we
are looking at maybe

2150
02:50:22,920 --> 02:50:23,980
this.

2151
02:50:26,479 --> 02:50:27,560
against this.

2152
02:50:30,340 --> 02:50:33,140
So the volume signature diminishes.

2153
02:50:34,100 --> 02:50:40,300
And I'm not taking this bar into the
account, although I probably should

2154
02:50:40,300 --> 02:50:41,820
some supply is coming in here.

2155
02:50:42,380 --> 02:50:46,660
Okay, so maybe like all of this. So we
would have to look at the cumulative

2156
02:50:46,660 --> 02:50:48,800
volume on those two reactions.

2157
02:50:49,320 --> 02:50:53,580
To me, just visually, kind of like look
at the down bars.

2158
02:50:54,120 --> 02:50:58,540
and the volume signature there. So to
me, this is a significant decrease.

2159
02:50:59,100 --> 02:51:05,860
So even though some saline comes on 28,
28 .5, you

2160
02:51:05,860 --> 02:51:12,700
know, still that signature goes down and
goes down rapidly

2161
02:51:12,700 --> 02:51:18,060
and significantly. So it looks very
bullish on that second reaction.

2162
02:51:26,240 --> 02:51:32,280
Would CO also be selling in each of
points of excitement, or is it only

2163
02:51:32,280 --> 02:51:33,560
institutional strong hands?

2164
02:51:35,480 --> 02:51:41,060
Yes, CO definitely has an agenda to
unload

2165
02:51:41,060 --> 02:51:47,580
their positions at the most
opportunistic times. And the most

2166
02:51:47,580 --> 02:51:51,660
times are going to be the times where
liquidity is going to be the highest.

2167
02:51:52,120 --> 02:51:59,020
So this is where they usually scale out,
take profits, and then if

2168
02:51:59,020 --> 02:52:04,260
distribution is going to happen, you're
going to see it in a specific way. So

2169
02:52:04,260 --> 02:52:07,440
you're going to see the increase of the
supply signature, you're going to see

2170
02:52:07,440 --> 02:52:11,660
the consistency of the supply, and
you're going to see that the result is

2171
02:52:11,660 --> 02:52:16,440
actually following that increase of
effort to the downside.

2172
02:52:18,300 --> 02:52:20,620
But yes, CO definitely would.

2173
02:52:21,130 --> 02:52:25,530
try to sell in the points of excitement
because points of excitement, excitement

2174
02:52:25,530 --> 02:52:27,510
always provide that liquidity.

2175
02:52:28,630 --> 02:52:34,230
Roman, from 33 to 35, can you reduce the
bias?

2176
02:52:36,750 --> 02:52:41,250
It's time the bulls want to go upstream,
so selling appearances is a

2177
02:52:41,250 --> 02:52:45,330
distribution. All right, Eric, well,
definitely a good question. Let's just

2178
02:52:45,330 --> 02:52:51,320
discuss it next time. And as an
assignment, definitely analyze this area

2179
02:52:51,320 --> 02:52:56,940
here and just to go with our spreadsheet
here

2180
02:52:56,940 --> 02:53:03,680
and analyze this area and come to the
next class prepared

2181
02:53:03,680 --> 02:53:05,060
to discuss this area.

2182
02:53:05,260 --> 02:53:07,920
So let's leave it for then.

2183
02:53:10,510 --> 02:53:14,070
Okay, Rick is saying, thanks for the bar
-by -bar analysis.

2184
02:53:14,290 --> 02:53:16,710
This is really starting to all come
together.

2185
02:53:17,050 --> 02:53:23,370
I'm glad to hear that because I know
from my experience with, you know,

2186
02:53:23,370 --> 02:53:29,110
doing this by myself or, you know,
working with students' traders, it takes

2187
02:53:29,110 --> 02:53:32,670
time. You first have to reverse your
thinking.

2188
02:53:33,130 --> 02:53:37,430
That's number one. And then after you
understand the concept, then you have to

2189
02:53:37,430 --> 02:53:42,370
practice. Once you practice this enough,
believe me, this becomes a second

2190
02:53:42,370 --> 02:53:45,990
nature, and you kind of see those
concepts much faster.

2191
02:53:49,350 --> 02:53:50,350
All right.

2192
02:53:51,410 --> 02:53:56,230
Do you ever employ the WISE wave to
analyze and compare twins?

2193
02:53:57,210 --> 02:54:03,530
Yes, absolutely. I actually do have
David's software, so we're talking about

2194
02:54:03,530 --> 02:54:06,150
David WISE.

2195
02:54:08,550 --> 02:54:15,550
You could find this plugin on his
website. I'm not sure if you

2196
02:54:15,550 --> 02:54:22,550
could do this for all of the software
packages, but

2197
02:54:22,550 --> 02:54:28,570
at least on TradeStation you can. I
know, I think MetaTrader or some other

2198
02:54:28,570 --> 02:54:34,770
platforms where he sells his products. I
would definitely

2199
02:54:34,770 --> 02:54:36,350
recommend this.

2200
02:54:36,750 --> 02:54:43,250
I also believe that cumulative volume,
you also, in some of the software, it

2201
02:54:43,250 --> 02:54:49,990
becomes almost like a standard now, so
standard feature. So I just would look

2202
02:54:49,990 --> 02:54:54,510
into that as well. But, yeah, go to
David's website. Anything that David

2203
02:54:54,510 --> 02:55:00,470
produces, I definitely recommend. And
you guys know me. I don't really.

2204
02:55:00,920 --> 02:55:04,980
care about the competition among, you
know, Wyckoff teachers and all this

2205
02:55:05,080 --> 02:55:08,140
It just all kind of like sounds
unreasonable to me.

2206
02:55:09,700 --> 02:55:11,840
You either know the stuff or you don't.

2207
02:55:12,900 --> 02:55:18,960
So David is one of those

2208
02:55:18,960 --> 02:55:23,820
big titans in the method, right? So we
had Wyckoff himself.

2209
02:55:24,280 --> 02:55:25,760
Then we had Bob Evans.

2210
02:55:26,020 --> 02:55:29,540
Then we had SMI with the series of...

2211
02:55:29,980 --> 02:55:36,540
teachers there. Then we had, you know,
big four names

2212
02:55:36,540 --> 02:55:43,380
in the 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s and up to
present, you know, some of them.

2213
02:55:43,520 --> 02:55:47,940
We had Tom Williams.

2214
02:55:49,800 --> 02:55:56,420
Tom Williams has passed away and his
field was BSA.

2215
02:55:57,859 --> 02:56:03,020
He wrote a book that usually students
have a little bit of a hard time, you

2216
02:56:03,020 --> 02:56:04,020
know, to read.

2217
02:56:04,260 --> 02:56:06,660
So maybe not a really good adaptation.

2218
02:56:06,900 --> 02:56:10,340
But still, I would, you know, if you're
a true white coffin, I would definitely

2219
02:56:10,340 --> 02:56:11,340
have that.

2220
02:56:11,640 --> 02:56:15,620
Then we had Craig Schroeder.

2221
02:56:17,240 --> 02:56:21,880
And Craig Schroeder was, for a long
time,

2222
02:56:21,940 --> 02:56:24,400
the...

2223
02:56:25,450 --> 02:56:32,190
as my contributor, as my principal
teacher,

2224
02:56:32,450 --> 02:56:35,790
and he has developed quite a lot of
concepts.

2225
02:56:36,050 --> 02:56:43,010
Then we also have had Hank Pruden.

2226
02:56:45,730 --> 02:56:51,910
And Hank was really big on structural
analysis.

2227
02:56:55,210 --> 02:56:56,210
And PNF.

2228
02:56:57,870 --> 02:57:00,070
And then we have,

2229
02:57:01,150 --> 02:57:03,950
we still have, and this is the only
person.

2230
02:57:04,450 --> 02:57:09,010
Well, actually, I'm not sure about
Craig. Craig is, I think Craig is still

2231
02:57:09,010 --> 02:57:10,010
alive.

2232
02:57:10,210 --> 02:57:16,530
So David Wise is definitely still
around. So David Wise, you know, on

2233
02:57:16,530 --> 02:57:22,690
BSA, Volume, and

2234
02:57:22,690 --> 02:57:24,590
Sprint's up for us.

2235
02:57:26,590 --> 02:57:32,170
So David has done so much work on this.
So those are kind of like the four big

2236
02:57:32,170 --> 02:57:39,150
names for the last 30, 40 years that you
could go

2237
02:57:39,150 --> 02:57:43,110
to these people and study their work,
and it's all going to be complementary.

2238
02:57:45,090 --> 02:57:50,250
And then after that, obviously, next
generations that came, you know, Bruce,

2239
02:57:50,550 --> 02:57:53,930
myself. This is from Hank.

2240
02:57:55,500 --> 02:57:56,740
So this is GGU.

2241
02:57:57,000 --> 02:58:03,500
And then from SMI, we have Todd

2242
02:58:03,500 --> 02:58:04,500
Butterfield.

2243
02:58:06,580 --> 02:58:13,560
So Todd is doing a lot on the
cryptocurrencies right now, has a

2244
02:58:13,560 --> 02:58:19,500
live session. And then on Tom Williams'
side, BSA,

2245
02:58:19,760 --> 02:58:24,180
we have Anna Kulin.

2246
02:58:25,640 --> 02:58:31,680
And it's all where Tom Williams lived,
you know, in the UK, Anna Cullen,

2247
02:58:31,860 --> 02:58:38,780
then Gavin Holmes, Peter Fritzen,

2248
02:58:38,920 --> 02:58:44,500
and then on,

2249
02:58:44,700 --> 02:58:49,700
so who else is left?

2250
02:58:50,240 --> 02:58:54,460
Tom Williams, SMI, Hank.

2251
02:58:55,020 --> 02:59:01,960
Yeah, and David Wise followers you

2252
02:59:01,960 --> 02:59:08,240
know as Gary Dayton and

2253
02:59:08,240 --> 02:59:09,840
Gary Fuller.

2254
02:59:12,140 --> 02:59:17,260
And all three have presented at Wyckoff
Analytics events.

2255
02:59:17,640 --> 02:59:19,680
Todd has been a big friend.

2256
02:59:20,400 --> 02:59:22,980
Gary and both Gary have presented.

2257
02:59:23,220 --> 02:59:24,740
Gary Fuller just recently.

2258
02:59:25,100 --> 02:59:27,700
David Wise has been at the West of
Wyckoff.

2259
02:59:28,800 --> 02:59:35,700
So I'm still trying to get Anna and
Peter, you know, to come to our

2260
02:59:35,700 --> 02:59:37,060
and just present.

2261
02:59:37,640 --> 02:59:42,120
So that's kind of like a history. And if
I would put, you know, something

2262
02:59:42,120 --> 02:59:43,600
before. So Wyckoff himself.

2263
02:59:45,940 --> 02:59:47,180
Then Bob Evans.

2264
02:59:49,710 --> 02:59:55,930
as a part of the SMI, and then everyone
else, and then correct short, and so on

2265
02:59:55,930 --> 02:59:56,930
and so forth.

2266
02:59:59,330 --> 03:00:03,190
Okay, we can say professor is enough for
now. Okay, great.

2267
03:00:03,470 --> 03:00:06,750
Yeah, we're going to stop here. So three
hours, that's too much.

2268
03:00:07,770 --> 03:00:09,610
All right, guys, good class.

2269
03:00:10,250 --> 03:00:15,750
I wanted to go into a lot of detail in
this class.

2270
03:00:16,190 --> 03:00:17,750
I wanted us...

2271
03:00:19,379 --> 03:00:26,060
to practice the counterintuitive read on
the bars, and hopefully

2272
03:00:26,060 --> 03:00:27,060
we've done so.

2273
03:00:27,320 --> 03:00:28,520
So go practice.

2274
03:00:29,680 --> 03:00:30,920
Send me your homework.

2275
03:00:31,340 --> 03:00:34,540
Watch this recording again. Make notes.

2276
03:00:35,280 --> 03:00:39,200
And that's going to be your best
practice. And I'll see you guys next

2277
03:00:39,200 --> 03:00:41,360
the 25th. Thank you guys so much.

2278
03:00:41,580 --> 03:00:42,539
All right.

2279
03:00:42,540 --> 03:00:43,540
Bye -bye, guys.